Global equity markets remain under pressure today, but not because of data; rather, it is due to the enormous uncertainty caused by the growing debt incurred by technology companies, mainly for the development of artificial intelligence. At the same time, oil prices remain at low levels, signaling concerns about weakening global demand.
Investors have already priced in the hard data from the Asian session, but the market's attention is now focused on preliminary PMI readings from the Old Continent and the United States. These publications will set the direction for the most volatile instruments, verifying the real scale of a potential economic slowdown. At the end of the day, volatility in the commodity market may be boosted by the estimated API fuel inventory report, and just after the Wall Street close, FedEx will present its financial condition, acting as one of the key barometers of global trade 📊.
Key publications from the Asian session
- Japan: Morning PMI indicators indicated an improvement. The index for the manufacturing sector was 54.9 against an expectation of 54.5 and at the same previous level.
- Australia: Preliminary PMI data confirmed a mixed picture: on one hand, an improvement in the manufacturing sector to 51.2 from 50.7, but on the other hand, the service sector index remained below 50 points (although the index itself improved).
Macroeconomic Calendar (BST time zone)
- 08:15 France - Manufacturing PMI. Consensus: 50. Previous reading: 49.7.
- 08:15 France - Services PMI. Consensus: 45.5. Previous reading: 44.3.
- 08:30 Germany - Manufacturing PMI. Consensus: 50.5. Previous reading: 50.1.
- 08:30 Germany - Services PMI. Consensus: 49. Previous reading: 48.1.
- 09:00 Eurozone - Composite PMI. Consensus: 49.1. Previous reading: 48.5.
- 09:30 UK - Services PMI. Consensus: 50.1. Previous reading: 49.3.
- 14:45 USA - Manufacturing PMI. Consensus: 54.6. Previous reading: 55.1.
- 14:45 USA - Services PMI. Consensus: 51.1. Previous reading: 50.7.
- 21:30 USA - API crude oil inventory report. Previous reading: -8.3 million barrels.
Company Results
- FedEx (Wall Street) publication after the session. Report for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. It is an absolute classic and a so-called litmus test for the global condition of consumers and trade. It is worth noting that this is the first report after the high-profile spinoff of the FedEx Freight segment as an independent public company. The market will be hunting for information on cost reductions and forecasts for the second half of the year.
Markets to watch
- EURUSD: The main currency pair will be extremely sensitive in the coming hours to discrepancies between preliminary PMI readings from the Eurozone (especially Germany) and the United States.
- WTI Oil: Persistent low commodity prices may react with increased volatility in response to the overnight API report. Any surprise in inventory growth could further deepen downward pressure.
- US500 (S&P 500): American benchmark has been under fire from sellers since the morning. Its final close will be crucially influenced by afternoon economic readings from the USA and the FedEx results published in the evening.
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