- Indexes in Europe open higher
- Weaker German industrial data, market awaits Eurozone GDP revision
- Attention focuses on US non-farm employment
Today's session centers around the U.S. labor market reading, which will be released at 1:30 PM GMT. The market expects the employment change to show a marked cooling off from previous high (though increasingly low) readings for some time. Previously published JOLTS and ADP have proved weaker. A potentially sharply higher-than-expected reading could cool Wall Street sentiment somewhat in the short term and support the dollar.
- At the same time, it does not seem that even stronger-than-forecast data will radically weigh on expectations for rate cuts in the United States. A huge upward surprise does not seem likely, in the context of recent mostly slightly weaker data from the US economy. The NFP data is not the only data particularly watched by the Fed, and recent inflation readings have been satisfactory and point to a likely further decline.
- Finally, for NFP to disrupt Fed expectations, the data would have to be stronger several times in a row. Moreover, yesterday's statements by Fed officials (Mester) indicate that the Federal Reserve does not expect rate cuts to create an inflationary threat, and Powell conveyed that the bank is on track to cut rates while on the road to the 2% target, which seems to suggest that the Fed is willing to cut rates before inflation is at the target.
Economic calendar
9 AM GMT - Italy's PPI (previously -16% y/y and -0.9 m/m)
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile app10 AM GMT - Eurozone GDP revision (previously 0.1% y/y growth and flat k/k reading)
1:30 PM GMT - US Non-Farm Payrolls for February: 165k expected vs. 317k previously
- Unemployment rate: 3.7% expected vs. 3.7% previously
- Wage growth m/m: 0.2% vs. 0.6% previously
- Average wages y/y: 4.3% vs. 4.5%
- Average hours worked: 34.3 vs 34.1 previously
- Manufacturing Payrolls: 7k vs. 23k previously
- Labor force participation rate: 62.6% vs. 62.5% previously
1:30 PM GMT - Canada's employment change for February: 20k vs. 37.3k previously
- Unemployment rate: 5.8% vs. 5.7% previously
- Average wage (per hour): 5.1% y/y vs. 5.3% previously
- Capacity utilization: 80% vs 79.7% previously
Central bankers' speeches:
- 9 AM GMT- ECB Holzmann
- 12 AM GMT - Fed Williams
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