Yesterday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data did not deliver as much excitement for investors as might have been expected, especially following Friday's NFP report, which failed to align with the hawkish tone coming from the Fed.
With no surprises on the CPI front, upcoming macro reports may capture more investor attention as they search for clearer perspectives on US monetary policy. Inflation remains in focus, though producers (PPI) take center stage today, where we could potentially look for signals regarding the pass-through of higher energy prices to specific sectors. In the US, data on Initial Jobless Claims and the natural gas storage report will also be released.
Key Releases from the Asian Session & Morning
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Japan: July Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation recorded a noticeable slowdown. On a yearly basis, the index fell to 7.2% (vs. 7.4% expected and 7.3% previously), while on a monthly basis, it rose by just 0.1% m/m (against a consensus of 0.6%).
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United Kingdom: The morning data dump brought mixed signals from the UK economy. Monthly June GDP unexpectedly grew by 0.3% m/m (forecast: -0.1%), while Q2 GDP maintained a pace of 0.4% q/q (1.2% y/y). On the other hand, the industrial sector disappointed—industrial production fell by -0.2% m/m (-0.2% y/y), and manufacturing contracted by -0.5% m/m. The trade deficit widened to -£23.01 billion.
Macroeconomic Calendar (all times CET):
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08:00 UK - GDP (m/m) (June). Actual: 0.3% | Consensus: -0.1% | Previous: 0.0%
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08:00 UK - GDP s.a. (q/q) (Q2). Actual: 0.4% | Consensus: 0.4% | Previous: 0.6%
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08:00 UK - GDP s.a. (y/y) (Q2). Actual: 1.2% | Consensus: 1.1% | Previous: 0.9%
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08:00 UK - Industrial Production (m/m) (June). Actual: -0.2% | Consensus: 0.1% | Previous: -0.7%
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08:00 UK - Manufacturing Production (m/m) (June). Actual: -0.5% | Consensus: -0.3% | Previous: -0.2%
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08:00 UK - Trade Balance (June). Actual: -£23.01 bn | Consensus: -£20.4 bn | Previous: -£21.08 bn
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09:30 Poland - GDP s.a. (q/q) (Q2 Flash). Consensus: 1.0% | Previous: 0.6%
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09:30 Poland - GDP n.s.a. (y/y) (Q2 Flash). Consensus: 3.8% | Previous: 3.5%
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09:30 Poland - CPI Inflation (y/y) (July). Consensus: 3.0% | Previous: 2.5%
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09:30 Poland - CPI Inflation (m/m) (July). Consensus: 0.8% | Previous: -0.5%
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11:00 Eurozone - Industrial Production s.a. (m/m) (June). Consensus: 0.0% | Previous: -0.2%
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14:00 Poland - Current Account Balance (June). Consensus: -€850 mn | Previous: -€1071 mn
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14:15 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Beth Hammack
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14:30 USA - PPI Inflation (y/y) (July). Consensus: 4.9% | Previous: 5.5%
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14:30 USA - PPI Inflation (m/m) (July). Consensus: 0.2% | Previous: -0.3%
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14:30 USA - Core PPI Inflation (y/y) (July). Consensus: 4.2% | Previous: 4.7%
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14:30 USA - Core PPI Inflation (m/m) (July). Consensus: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
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14:30 USA - Initial Jobless Claims. Consensus: 202k | Previous: 199k
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14:40 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Thomas Barkin
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16:30 USA - EIA Natural Gas Storage Change. Consensus: 31 Bcf | Previous: 33 Bcf
Top Earnings Releases
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JD.com (before market open) – important release for assessing the condition of the Chinese consumer.
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Applied Materials (after market close) – key semiconductor equipment supplier; the report will reveal demand for further expansion of tech infrastructure.
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Nu Holdings (before market open)
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Globant (after market close)
3 Markets to Watch Today
GBP/USD (FX) – Sterling is reacting to two strong stimuli today. Following the higher-than-expected UK monthly GDP reading for June (0.3% m/m), the afternoon brings a test for the US dollar. At 14:30, July US producer inflation (PPI) and the weekly labor market report (Claims) will be released, setting the trajectory for the pair by the end of the day.
WIG20 / EUR/PLN (Poland) – A key morning for the domestic market. At 9:30 CET, Statistics Poland (GUS) will publish the flash GDP estimate for Q2 (expected acceleration to 3.8% y/y) and the July CPI reading (consensus: 3.0% y/y). This data, combined with financial report from PKO, Poland's biggest bank in terms of market cap, will determine the sentiment across the Polish banking sector.
Nasdaq 100 / US100 fut. (Stock Indices) – After yesterday's market relief and optimism fueled by AI infrastructure earnings, attention shifts to the US PPI inflation reading (14:30). An expected drop in the annual rate to 4.9% y/y (from 5.5%) along with speeches from Fed officials (Hammack, Barkin) will give investors a pretext to price in the Fed's future rate path.
Chart of the day: GBPUSD down on slower UK GDP growth! Unbreakable sideways trend?
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Daily Summary: Wall Street Gains After CPI Data 📈 Gold and EURUSD Move Lower
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