August is drawing to a close, and investors' attention is shifting to the Jackson Hole symposium starting today. Yesterday we also learned Nvidia's results. The company published higher-than-expected revenues and, above all, phenomenal forecasts after the close of trading on Wall Street, supporting sentiment in after-hours trading. Today is primarily a wait for signals from the Federal Reserve, combined with the expiration of options worth nearly three billion dollars. Additionally, the afternoon publication of the minutes from the last meeting of the European Central Bank may cause increased volatility on the main currency pairs.
Key publications from the Asian session
- Japan: Foreign bond buying amounted to −1978.4 billion JPY (previously 1137.3 billion JPY), illustrating very strong capital flows.
- Australia: New private capital expenditure in the second quarter unexpectedly contracted by 3.6 percent on a quarterly basis, negatively surprising markets which expected growth of 0.8 percent.
- China: Industrial profit since the beginning of the year (YTD) slowed down slightly, falling to 17.6 percent from the earlier 18.7 percent.
Macroeconomic calendar
- 10:00 AM CET Eurozone - M3 money supply year-on-year. Consensus: 3.5%. Previous reading: 3.3%.
- 1:30 PM CET Eurozone - Minutes from the last meeting
- 2:30 PM CET USA - Initial jobless claims. Consensus: 208K. Previous reading: 206K.
- 2:30 PM CET USA - Continuing jobless claims. Consensus: 1790K. Previous reading: 1799K.
- 2:30 PM CET USA - Goods trade balance. Consensus: −100.80 billion USD. Previous reading: −101.41 billion USD.
- 2:30 PM CET Canada - Current account. Consensus: 3.5 billion USD. Previous reading: −7.2 billion USD.
- 4:30 PM CET USA - Natural gas storage. Consensus: 19B. Previous reading: 16B.
- 5:00 PM CET USA - Dallas Fed Index
- 10:30 PM CET USA - Fed Balance Sheet
Corporate events
- Royal Bank of Canada (before session)
- Dollar General (before session)
Markets to watch:
- S&P 500 – the Jackson Hole symposium starting today is a key flashpoint for the US equity market and a factor that could directly weigh on volatility in the coming days.
- AUDUSD – after overnight, much weaker than expected data on private capital expenditure, the currency is under supply pressure.
- EURUSD – today's M3 money supply data in the Eurozone and the publication of the ECB meeting minutes could bring significant moves on the main currency pair.
EURUSD is preparing to test the upward trend line and the vicinity of 1.1650. It is worth noting that a similar sequence appeared in April and after testing the 25 SMA average, there was one more slight rebound. Apart from today's events, the Jackson Hole economic symposium will be the key. Source: xStation5
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