The spotlight today will be on August's PCE reading, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which is expected to show acceleration in both core and headline figures. A stronger-than-expected reading would reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, whereas a weaker figure could dampen expectations for another rate hike. Following the market close, Micron Technology will release its quarterly results - a critical benchmark for the entire AI-linked sector, which has driven a modest recovery on Wall Street in recent weeks.
Market sentiment is being supported today by end-of-quarter rebalancing; Asian indices are posting their strongest gains in three days, with the Nikkei 225 approaching the 67,000 mark (+2%). Lower crude oil prices are also providing support, largely due to the restoration of operations on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.
🌏 Key Macroeconomic Releases
Tuesday
United States
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 81.9 in September, significantly below consensus expectations (89.2) and the upwardly revised previous reading (88.6).
Job openings (JOLTS) dropped to 7.08 million in August, missing the consensus estimate of 7.23 million.
Wednesday
China
PMI figures slightly exceeded expectations. The composite index registered at 50.7 according to official NBS data, and 52.1 for the Rating Dog index (formerly Caixin). While the rebound remains modest, it appears to reflect the initial tangible effects of the government's stimulus package.
Japan
Industrial production contracted by 1.7% MoM in August, closely aligning with consensus forecasts. This marks the second consecutive monthly decline, primarily driven by earthquake disruptions and supply chain tensions stemming from the conflict in Iran. Retail sales rose 2.7% YoY, expanding at a slightly slower pace than expected.
Australia
CPI inflation picked up to 4.0% YoY in September, coming in slightly below consensus. Attention focused on core inflation, which moderated to 0.2% MoM (down from 0.5% in the preceding month). The softer reading effectively erased expectations for a November rate hike by the RBA, with markets now pricing in just a ~25% probability of a move, down from ~40% prior to the release. AUD/USD slid below 0.700, touching its lowest level since 30 July.
📆 Economic Calendar
Wednesday
- Germany: September HICP Inflation
- Time: 1:00 PM
- Prior: 2.9%
- Consensus: 3.1%
- US: August PCE Inflation
- Time: 1:30 PM
- Prior: 3.7%
- Consensus: 3.7%
- US: Q2 GDP Growth (Revision)
- Time: 1:30 PM
- Preliminary: 1.5%
- US: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3
- Time: 3:00 PM
- Preliminary: 5%
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories Data
- Time: 3:30 PM
Thursday
Market holiday in China and Hong Kong
- Japan: Tankan Survey Indices
- Time: 12:50 AM
- Japan and South Korea: Manufacturing PMIs
- Time: 1:30 AM
- Switzerland: September CPI Inflation
- Time: 7:30 AM
- Prior: 0.8%
- Italy, France, Germany: September Manufacturing PMIs (Revision)
- Time: 8:45 AM / 8:50 AM / 8:55 AM
🗂️ Corporate Earnings Releases
- Micron Technology ($MU.US) - After Market Close (AMC)
- CBAK Energy Technology ($CBAT.US) - Before Market Open (BMO)
3 Key Markets to Watch
- TNOTE: The market is focusing on today's PCE reading to assess whether an October interest rate hike will be necessary. Crude oil prices also remain crucial.
- OIL: The reopening of the East-West pipeline temporarily eased supply concerns; however, the situation remains highly volatile. US-Iran negotiations failed to yield expected progress, with both sides appearing far from reaching an agreement.
- US100: The recent strength in semiconductor stocks faces a major test today with Micron's quarterly results; a strong report could help the index resist pressure from rising yields.
—
Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB
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