Economic Calendar: What Could Move the Market This Week? (03.08.2026)

The past week was replete with meetings from major central banks. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all elected to maintain interest rates at their current levels. The Federal Reserve's decision naturally commanded the most attention. The market had anticipated more decisive communication from the Fed Chair, who once again avoided remarks that could be construed as forward guidance, resulting in a sell-off of the US currency.

This coming Friday presents another test for the dollar, with the publication of NFP data from the US labour market. In terms of macroeconomic releases, this will be the most significant reading of the coming days. In the interim, other US labour market data will be released: JOLTS (Tuesday), ADP (Wednesday), as well as weekly jobless claims (Thursday).

We also look forward to the earnings season. This week's highlights include:

• Monday: Palantir, Snap, Trump Media & Technology, ON Semiconductor
• Tuesday: AMD, Lucid Group, Pfizer, SpaceX, Spotify, McDonald's
• Wednesday: Walt Disney, Shopify, Uber, Beyond Meat, Eli Lilly, SanDisk
• Thursday: Airbnb
• Friday: Under Armour, Take-Two Interactive, Wendy's

🌏 Key macroeconomic publications

Following a week busy with major central bank meetings, we anticipate a longer respite from monetary policy. Only the Czech CNB will convene this week (Thursday) and is unlikely to adjust interest rate levels.

As mentioned, regarding macroeconomic data, attention will primarily focus on Friday's NFP report. Further data weaker than expectations could bolster a dovish repricing of the Fed's projected interest rate path.

In the first half of the week, we expect mainly revisions of PMI indicators. As these are revisions rather than preliminary readings, their potential to trigger volatility is relatively modest. An exception in this regard was the RatingDog data from China, which is published slightly later than the rest; the first reading for July was released overnight.

China

• July's Rating Dog PMI for the manufacturing sector surprised to the downside (50.9 against a consensus of 52). It is worth noting that PMI indicators in China are published by two different institutions. S&P (RatingDog) provides better insight into the situation of small and medium-sized private enterprises, primarily located in China's coastal belt, many of which are export-oriented. The NBS, meanwhile, accounts for more large state-owned enterprises from the heavy industry and infrastructure sectors, whose production is significantly more focused on the domestic market.

Switzerland

• Inflation fell to 0.4% in July. The decline in fuel prices (down 0.7% compared to June) was a key factor. The core indicator, which excludes the most volatile fuel and food prices, also remains at a very low level (0.3%), aided by lower prices for clothing and footwear. Unlike other developed economies, an interest rate hike in Switzerland before the end of the year is not the market's baseline scenario.

📆 Macroeconomic calendar

Monday

• Eurozone: Revision of Manufacturing PMI data (July)
  • Time: 9:00 AM
  • Previous: 52
• United Kingdom: Revision of Manufacturing PMI data (July)
  • Time: 9:30 AM
  • Previous: 52.8
• United States: Revision of Manufacturing PMI data (July)
  • Time: 2:45 PM
  • Previous: 53.8
• United States: ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)
  • Time: 3:00 PM
  • Previous: 53.3
  • Consensus: 53.9

Tuesday

• South Korea: CPI inflation (July)
  • Time: 12:00 AM
  • Previous: 3.2%
  • Consensus: 3.1%
• United States: Trade balance (June)
  • Time: 1:30 PM
  • Previous: -$77.6 billion
  • Consensus: -$73 billion
• United States: Factory orders (June)
  • Time: 3:00 PM
  • Previous: -1.3%
  • Consensus: +0.2%
• United States: JOLTS (June)
  • Time: 3:00 PM
  • Previous: 7594k
  • Consensus: 7504k

🗂️ Corporate Earnings Publications

• TG Therapeutics ($TGTX.US): before market open (BMO)
• Palantir ($PLTR.US): after market close (AMC)
• Snap ($SNAP.US): after market close (AMC)
• Trump Media & Technology ($DJT.US): after market close (AMC)
• 3D Systems ($DDD.US): after market close (AMC)
• ON Semiconductor ($ON.US): after market close (AMC)

Three Markets to Watch

• USDJPY: Estimates based on data from the Bank of Japan suggest approximately 8.45 trillion yen (equivalent to roughly $53 billion) may have been purchased, potentially representing the largest single-day intervention by the BoJ in history. The USDJPY pair fell by over 4%, reaching levels around 156, a level last observed in early May.
• OIL: On Saturday, we received news of an intended attack which, per Donald Trump's statements, was to be the "largest since WWII". Ultimately, regional leaders reportedly convinced him that an agreement was imminent, leading to the cancellation of the military action. Brent crude is currently priced at just over $83 per barrel, approximately 5% lower than a week ago.
• EURUSD: The dollar continues the sell-off initiated after Wednesday's Fed meeting. This week, it faces another significant test with the publication of Friday's NFP report. In the meantime, attention will turn to ISM Manufacturing PMI data (today), the JOLTS report (tomorrow), ADP (Wednesday) and jobless claims (Thursday).