The market opens the week in the wake of a sharp fall in oil prices, following reports that the US and Iran have halted attacks in the Strait of Hormuz – this is the main driver of today’s session. WTI crude is down by over 7%, whilst Brent fell by as much as around 5% on Sunday, retreating from the two-month highs recorded in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East.
What's moving the market?
At the start of the week, the commodities market appears to be taking the lead – OIL.WTI (-7.38%) and OIL (Brent, -6.54%) are the clear leaders in the declines, whilst NATGAS is down by almost 4%. On the other side of the market, silver (+2.57%), US100 (+1.41%) and EU50 (+1.36%) are posting the biggest gains, suggesting a rebound from geopolitical risks and a return of appetite for risky assets. The main European indices (DE40 +1.32%, SPA35 +1.25%, ITA40 +1.20%) and the US500 (+0.96%) are rising at the open, as are the Asian indices JP225 (+1.31%) and CHN.cash (+1.33%).
Today’s macroeconomic data
At 10:00 we’ll see the German Ifo index for July, and at 14:30 US durable goods orders for June – these are the only hard macroeconomic readings on today’s calendar. In the background, however, geopolitical and trade developments are dominating the scene – on Friday, the Trump administration imposed new Section 301 tariffs (10–12.5 per cent) on 60 trading partners, which is once again fuelling uncertainty in global markets.
What’s in store for us this week
Monday, 27 July
- 10:00 Germany – Ifo Institute Index (business climate) for July
- 14:30 US – Durable goods orders (month-on-month) for June
Tuesday, 28 July
- 05:05 Australia – Speech by the RBA Governor
- 22:40 US – API report on changes in crude oil stocks
Wednesday, 29 July
- 03:30 Australia – CPI inflation (y/y and q/q) for the second quarter
- 16:30 US – Change in crude oil and petrol stocks, according to the EIA
- 20:00 US – Fed interest rate decision
- 20:30 USA – FOMC press conference
Thursday, 30 July
- 09:00 Spain – CPI inflation for July and GDP for the second quarter
- 11:00 Eurozone – GDP (year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter) for the second quarter
- 13:00 UK – BoE interest rate decision
- 14:00 Germany – CPI inflation (year-on-year and month-on-month) for July
- 14:30 US – GDP (annualised) for the second quarter
- 14:30 US – PCE inflation for June
- 16:30 US – EIA natural gas stock figures
Friday, 31 July
- 00:00 Japan – BoJ interest rate decision and press conference
- 01:50 Japan – Industrial production and retail sales for June
- 03:30 China – CFLP PMI indices (for manufacturing and services) for July
- 09:30 Poland – CPI inflation (year-on-year and month-on-month) for July
- 11:00 Eurozone – HICP and core HICP inflation (year-on-year and month-on-month) for July
The key event of the week will be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday (20:00), alongside Jerome Powell’s press conference – the market is currently pricing in a 35–40 per cent chance of a rate rise, which is a sharp increase from around 10 per cent as recently as June, due to the surge in oil prices and concerns about inflation. In addition, we are in for a marathon of Mag7 earnings – Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday after the close, Apple and Amazon on Thursday, whilst outside the Big Tech sector, Visa, Samsung and ExxonMobil will also be in the spotlight. On the macro front, the week concludes with a series of key releases: US and eurozone Q2 GDP figures (Thursday), the BoE’s decision and German CPI inflation (Thursday), and on Friday the BoJ’s decision, China’s PMI, and Polish and EU CPI inflation figures for July. Source: XTB
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