-
EURUSD has fallen to its lowest level since early August and is heading towards 1.1500.
-
The primary driver is the strengthening Dollar (USD) due to a drop in the probability of a December rate cut by the Fed (from $\sim$90% to $\sim$60%).
-
Further Dollar strengthening could occur if next week's US data (ISM, ADP) proves positive.
-
There are signs that ECB may return to cuts early next year
-
EURUSD has fallen to its lowest level since early August and is heading towards 1.1500.
-
The primary driver is the strengthening Dollar (USD) due to a drop in the probability of a December rate cut by the Fed (from $\sim$90% to $\sim$60%).
-
Further Dollar strengthening could occur if next week's US data (ISM, ADP) proves positive.
-
There are signs that ECB may return to cuts early next year
The dollar is preparing for a positive close not only this week but also this month. The EURUSD pair is breaking local lows from mid-month today and is heading towards the 1.1500 level amid diminishing chances for interest rate cuts in the United States. The dollar is strengthening against every G10 currency today.
The probability of a rate cut in the US has decreased from around 90% before the last Fed decision to a level of nearly 60%. If next week's data, such as the ISM indices or the ADP report, turn out positive, it could increase the Fed's confidence regarding the state of the US economy and lead to further dollar strengthening. Moreover there are some signs that the EBC may be flexible in the near future which may mean that the interest rates may decrease in the next year.
Expectations for Fed cuts have decreased. The market now sees interest rate declines to around 3.0% by the end of this cycle, considering the effective rate (3.25% for the upper bound). Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB
EURUSD is falling below the 1.1530 level today, breaking through the mid-month support. Just 3 sessions ago, the pair was closer to the 1.17 level, but currently, it seems that the 1.1500 level is within reach. Source: xStation5
Daily Summary: ECB, FOMC and MAG7 - mixed signals and risk aversion
ECB Conference: Global Uncertainty, Policy Stability 💶
Chart of the day - Soybean (30.10.2025)
Morning wrap (30.10.2025)
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
