Christopher Waller
Waller believes that current data justify a 25 bp rate cut at the next meeting and supports a “cautious” approach — a 25 bp cut, followed by a pause and reassessment. He emphasized that the policy path beyond October will depend on incoming data: if the labor market continues to weaken, rates should move toward a neutral level, which he estimates to be about 100–125 bp below current levels.
He pointed to “clear warning signals” in the labor market — private indicators show weak labor demand, partially masked by supply-side dynamics (e.g., lost and replaced workers) and the “no-hire, no-fire” phenomenon, which he finds concerning. Inflation is heading toward 2% (currently estimated around 2.5%) with only moderate impact from tariffs, while GDP may slow later in the year.
Waller also noted that artificial intelligence may represent a structural drag on the labor market, which interest rate policy cannot resolve — hence his preference for gradual 25 bp cuts.
Thomas Barkin
Barkin observed a “clear shift” in the labor market — managers report many candidates per position, a sign of weakening labor demand. With fewer reliable data, he said the Fed is “flying blind,” arguing that this calls for caution. Consumers are still spending, but with less excess savings than in previous years and making more spending trade-offs, suggesting a slowdown rather than an overheating economy.
Stephen Miran
Miran argued that the Fed should cut rates by 50 bp, given rising uncertainty, though he expects an actual move of 25 bp in practice. He sees U.S.–China trade tensions as the main short-term risk. Tariffs have not yet significantly boosted inflation, but disruptions — especially in rare-earth supply chains — could have serious consequences.
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