⚡GOLD surges, reaching new all-time high above $2,840 driven by trade war fears and weakening US dollar
GOLD is up 1% today to $2,830 per ounce, driven by the weakness of the U.S. dollar, which is under pressure after Donald Trump postponed the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico and continues negotiations with China. The initially scheduled Trump-Xi meeting for today has been tentatively postponed, which markets may interpret as prolonged hopes for a U.S.-China trade agreement, which may weaken the US dollar further.
It remains uncertain whether the U.S. will maintain the 10% tariffs on China, but higher demand for gold can be attributed to central bank purchases and increased safe-haven investments, potentially shielding the market from unexpected developments amid global trade tensions. Investors are shifting their focus towards safe-haven assets, including gold and silver, with the latter already up more than 2.2% today.
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- U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields decline by 4 bps to 4.21% and nearly 1.5 bps to 4.53%, respectively.
- The U.S. Dollar Index (USDIDX) loses 0.3%, falling below 108.
- JOLTS job openings and factory orders data from the U.S. came in weaker than expected:
- Factory Orders m/m: -0.9% (Forecast: -0.8%, Previous: -0.4%)
- U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS, December 2024): 7.6 million (Forecast: 8.01 million, Previous: 8.098 million)
Weaker US macroeconomic data, increased hedging demand amid uncertain short and long term trade war impact on economies, and a weaker U.S. dollar, which also lost momentum at the start of Trump’s previous presidency, are driving investors toward gold.
GOLD (D1 Chart)
Gold continues its strong bullish trend, ongoing since October 2023, as indicated by exponential moving averages (EMAs). A key support zones remain at $2,700, where the 50-day EMA (blue curve on the chart) is currently positioned.
Source: xStation5
The previous two upward impulses started when price action formed two local lows, with the second being higher than the previous one. A similar setup was observed in Q4 2024, when the $2,550 - $2,600 range acted as strong support within the uptrend.
Source: xStation5
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