Gold prices are down almost 1% on Tuesday below $3010 per ounce, despite Monday's rebound of more than 2%. The precious metal remains under pressure after hitting a one-year low on Friday, with recovery attempts continuing to be constrained by renewed increases in energy prices, concerns about persistent inflation and, consequently, the prospect of higher interest rates in the US and other major economies.
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Oil prices have risen again today following reports of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. Selling pressure has extended beyond gold to other precious metals, with silver falling as much as 3% to $49 per ounce. Platinum is down 1.3% to $1,430, while palladium has declined 2.3% to approximately $945.
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Reports of renewed US military action against Iran have heightened concerns about an escalation of the eight-month conflict and further disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies. The return of a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices complicates the disinflation outlook and could limit the Federal Reserve's room to ease monetary policy.
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Investors currently price in a 73% probability of a Fed interest-rate hike in December, according to CME FedWatch data. Persistently elevated oil prices increase the risk of sticky inflation and prolonged restrictive monetary policy in the US, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
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Today's US midterm congressional elections represent another source of uncertainty for financial markets. Tim Waterer believes that a Democratic sweep of both chambers could increase regulatory pressure on the technology sector and complicate further expansion of AI data centre infrastructure.
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The World Gold Council, however, continues to highlight structural support for gold investment demand. The main factors include strong inflows into physically backed gold ETFs, resilient demand for physical bullion and continued purchases by central banks.
GOLD chart (D1 timeframe)
Gold is trading approximately 10% below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200, red line), while the RSI at 34 indicates that the market is approaching oversold territory. Today's US JOLTS job openings report and factory orders data, both scheduled for 3:00 PM GMT, could also trigger volatility in gold prices. The $4,000-per-ounce level remains an important psychological resistance, while the nearest support is located around $3,875.\
Source: xStation5
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