Precious metals are extending a powerful bull run, with gold hitting fresh all-time highs today and pushing toward the $4,900 per ounce area. Silver is also gaining, trading close to $95 per ounce. The move is being fueled by a weakening US dollar, which has been undermined by the “unpredictable” policy approach of Donald Trump’s administration and the longer-term concerns it raises about demand for US debt.
- It appears that the “move away” from the dollar across parts of the BRICS world will continue, accelerated by the “weaponization” of the world’s reserve currency and a more aggressive White House policy stance. That, in turn, could challenge the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.
- In addition, the US’s shifting - and at times confrontational approach toward allied countries may further encourage major Western central banks to pause, or at least scale back, purchases of US Treasuries and redirect a portion of reserves toward gold.
- This is not, of course, the base case we can clearly observe today, but markets try to “price the future,” and the broad conclusion remains: in the foreseeable future, precious metals prices are likely to remain supported and biased higher.
Gold chart (D1 timeframe)
That said, the question is how far and how fast the current rally can run. The daily RSI is hovering near 80, which strongly suggests gold is approaching “overbought” territory. Looking at the price action, a potential correction could pull the metal back toward $4,400 per ounce, where the 50-day exponential moving average on the daily chart sits (EMA50, orange line). This scenario would also complete a 1:1 corrective move, as a very similar-sized decline occurred in Q4 2025. We cannot say today whether this impulse will “touch” $5,000 per ounce, but if the current momentum ends up broadly 1:1 with the summer–autumn leg of last year, the rally could stall around $4,900 per ounce, with a potential pullback to $4,400 per ounce.
Source: xStation5
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