The European Central Bank has raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.5%. The decision had already been fully priced in by investors, which explains why the market reaction has been muted so far.
Figure 1: EURUSD (August 2025 – September 2026)
Source: XTB Research, 10.09.2026
The euro is weakening against the dollar today by around 0.2%, though this appears to be driven primarily by further rises in the prices of crude oil and LNG. A barrel of Brent currently costs nearly $104.
Figure 2: Brent and WTI Crude Oil (2026)
Source: XTB Research, 10.09.2026
The conference is now underway, and for a change, it is being held in Berlin.
Key speech points:
- The economy proved resilient despite the energy shock. Growth was broad based.
- Manufacturing continues to grow solidly.
- The labour market has reamaind robust.
- The near term growth outlook has improved.
- Core inflation and services inflation both edged down last month.
- Wages do not show a material response to the energy shock.
- The ECB wage tracker points to 2.7% in H1.
- Most measures of long term inflation expectations stay close to 2%.
- Higher energy prices are expected to feed through to core and food inflation.
- Core inflation is expected to keep rising until early 2027 and moderate in 2028.
- Worsening in market risk sentiment could tighten market conditions.
- On the other hand, energy shock could last longer than expected.
- Gas prices, particularly, could increase.
Q&A:
- Three key pillars: inflation outlook, underlying inflation, transmission.
- Markets do what they have to do. We have not debated about any kind of future path today.
- When there is something about me, personally, You will be the first to know. After my grandchildren. And there is nothing to report (about possibly leaving ECB earlier).
- The neutral rate is a "work in progress" and is "highly conceptual". In the current circumstances we are not attaching great importance to it at the moment.
- The decision today was a no-brainer. It was unanimous. We are determined to deliver our target.
- We have been in a way surprised on both ends (inflation and growth). If the cutoff was later, the growth projection would be even higher.
- We believe inflation will be longer lasting than previously expected, but likely lower than expected.
- The euro has never been as popular as it is now amongst European citizens.
- El euro nunca ha sido tan popular como lo es actualmente entre los ciudadanos europeos.
(the article is updated live)
Time for an ECB rate hike
🏯Chart of the day – USDJPY under the influence of Bessent and the BoJ (10.09.2026)
📊Morning Wrap: Hawkish Bank of Japan and Trump's Promises Electrify Markets Ahead of PPI Data
🛢️Brent Crude Nearing $100
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.