Regional elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt do not usually attract much interest outside Germany. This time, however, they have triggered a minor political earthquake due to a historic victory by the AfD (Alternative for Germany/Alternative für Deutschland).
Politics
The AfD secured approximately 44% of the vote, defeating the Christian Democrats (CDU), who received around 18%. This marks only the second time since the Second World War that a far-right party has won a regional election in Germany (the AfD having won the elections in Thuringia in 2024).
All signs point to the party falling just one seat short of an absolute majority. This is highly significant, given that a so-called 'cordon sanitaire' has existed within Germany's political mainstream for years, under which the Christian Democrats (CDU), Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Liberals (FDP) have refused to enter into coalitions with the far-right. If any party breaks this agreement, it will represent a highly significant political declaration.
Following the market open, no drastic movements have been observed, though the DAX is performing slightly worse than other European indices (with some exceptions). The euro exchange rate remains stable (and is even strengthening slightly). Investors appear to assume that the AfD's chances of actually taking the reins of the state remain slim (it is worth noting that Saxony-Anhalt has historically
In the longer term, however, the growing popularity of the AfD represents a serious risk factor for investors. Among the party's core proposals is the restoration of relations with Russia. The party's leader, Alice Weidel, has also expressed a desire to leave the eurozone, arguing that the German economy performed significantly better prior to the introduction of the single currency.
Indices
The scale of movement for most European indices is relatively modest at present. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.2% (though it is worth noting that only 28% of the index's components are posting gains).
Figure 1: Dashboard for Euro Stoxx 50 (07.09.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 07.09.2026
Gains in semiconductor companies are of significant importance to the broader index. ASML is up 1%, while Infineon rises by 3.6%.
Figure 2: Heatmap for Euro Stoxx 50 (07.09.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 07.09.2026
This is partly due to the launch of ChatGPT-6 Astra, which is designed to be more than just a chatbot, acting as a kind of computer operator. The primary focus has been placed on complex reasoning and executing multi-step tasks directly on a computer (such as working with spreadsheets or troubleshooting software issues).
Figure 3: Gainers and Losers in Euro Stoxx 50 (07.09.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 07.09.2026
As previously mentioned, the German DAX is trading in the red (-0.3%), whereas France's CAC 40 (+0.2%) and the UK's FTSE 100 (+0.3%) are posting gains.
Commodities
Pressure continues to be exerted by rising energy commodity prices. Brent crude oil is currently trading at over $97 per barrel, while natural gas on the Dutch TTF exchange stands at nearly $72 per MWh.
Geopolitics
This is, of course, a consequence of the rather pessimistic headlines coming from the Middle East.
On Sunday, the US Energy Secretary suggested that a nuclear deal with Iran is highly unlikely at present, and the objective of the operations will be the permanent destruction of Tehran's combat and radar capabilities.
On the same day, Tehran announced the creation of a new maritime 'exclusion zone' extending beyond the Strait of Hormuz itself. The US side categorically dismissed reports of the shipping lane's closure, labelling them as propaganda. Washington reported that it had cleared mines from key shipping routes and is supporting the flow of commercial vessels. Nevertheless, the shelling is causing a paralysis in decision-making among some shipowners.
Today has also seen Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Jazan Province (located in southwestern Saudi Arabia, near the Yemeni border).
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