Major European indices are opening higher today despite weakness on Wall Street—Euro Stoxx 50 futures are stable, while the German DAX is up 0.46%, as are the EU50 (+0.29%), UK100 (+0.45%), and the Italian ITA40 index (+0.94%).
The main factor driving the markets today is the U.S. June payrolls report—the median forecast is for an increase of 110,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, but the wide range of estimates (25,000–200,000) poses a high risk of a surprise that will determine whether the Fed will raise rates further later this year.
The sell-off in the tech sector is putting additional pressure on market sentiment—following news that Meta plans to sell excess AI computing power, the SOX semiconductor index fell by more than 6% on Wednesday, and stock markets in South Korea and Japan saw sharp declines.
The yen suddenly strengthened, and the dollar/yen exchange rate fell to around 161, following reports that Japan was shifting its currency intervention strategy to a more “surgical” approach against speculators betting on the yen’s weakness, which further weakened the dollar across the broader market.
Oil prices fall for the third day in a row—Brent hits a four-month low, while WTI prices drop 0.72–0.86% following progress in U.S.-Iran talks in Doha regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which eases inflation concerns.
The U.S. dollar is slightly weaker (-0.38%), while gold is up 0.78% and silver is up 1.29%, benefiting from the greenback's weakness.
On the European stock market, defensive and cyclical sectors are performing the best—Health Care (+1.98%), Financials (+1.22%), and Consumer Discretionary (+1.09%). Technology (-2.80%) and Communications (-0.75%) are underperforming, dragging the Euro Stoxx 50 index down despite the strong performance of other sectors. Source: XTB
Corporate Information
-
Bayer is up more than 5% (its highest level in nearly three years) following the creation of a new unit, Ruveon, for its Roundup business in the U.S., a move the market is interpreting as a step toward a potential breakup of the group, further bolstered by Deutsche Bank’s upgrade to “buy” and a 33% increase in its price target to €60.
-
Sodexo’s stock is posting solid gains after the company raised its full-year organic revenue growth forecast to 1.2–1.5% following better-than-consensus third-quarter results (€6.17 billion versus a consensus estimate of €6.04 billion).
-
Volkswagen is posting profits despite internal tensions—the company is preparing for a crucial supervisory board meeting on July 9, at which a decision is expected to be made to cut up to 100,000 jobs and close four German factories, a move that is facing strong opposition from labor unions and the state of Lower Saxony.
-
Chipmakers remain under pressure from the declines seen in the previous quarter—Infineon Technologies is down 3.20% and ASML Holding is down 3.14%, amid a sell-off in semiconductors in the U.S. and Asia.
-
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has determined that UBS already meets the stricter capital requirements introduced following the collapse of Credit Suisse, while UBS itself argues that the new regulations are overly restrictive and could undermine the competitiveness of the Swiss financial sector.
AMS OSRAM: Is it the next Micron?
NFP: A Key Moment for the Dollar
Oil Price Erases Geopolitical Premium Faster Than After the Conflict with Russia. Is This the End or the Beginning of the Declines?
Chart of the Day: Is USDJPY in a stable trend or at a turning point? 💡
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
