Morning Briefing: Global Markets Riding AI Wave, Rising Geopolitical Tensions, and Hawkish Central Banks (22.09.2026)

📈 Stocks & Indices

• Global equity markets show very strong sentiment, with major US indices supported by a strong rally in technology and artificial intelligence companies.
• The S&P 500 stands at 7,833, gaining 0.05% on the day and 1.4% on a weekly basis, while the Nasdaq 100 reached 30,794, rising 0.05% today and 2.8% on a weekly basis, and the Dow Jones is trading at 52,468, gaining 0.04% (+0.64% on the week).
• The tech sector is pulling the broader stock market up after its best session since early August, driven by the success of AI tools and massive gains among market leaders.
• Among key companies, Nvidia is trading at 227.32 (+2.36%), tech giant Meta surged to 740.77 thanks to a jump of 11.38%, and Google gained 1.64% yesterday, reaching 354.86.
• India's National Stock Exchange is attracting huge investor interest in a record $2.3B initial public offering, reaching a valuation above the Nasdaq multiple.
• Additionally, Taiwan's Taiex index hit an all-time intraday high, accompanied by strong market development across Asia despite market closures in Japan due to holidays.

🌍 Macroeconomics

• RBA Governor Michele Bullock warns of strong inflationary pressures driven by domestic demand, global supply shocks, and rising global neutral interest rates.
• RBNZ Governor Anna Breman highlights that persistently higher fuel prices could push short-term inflation above forecasts, with the bank remaining focused on upcoming data ahead of the October decision.
• Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that the recent escalation of fighting in the Middle East and persistent inflation were key reasons for supporting last week's interest rate hike.
• Alibaba CEO presented an advanced chip and plans to build a sophisticated AI model with 5 to 10 trillion parameters, fitting into the global trend of rapidly growing demand for data center infrastructure.

💱 Currencies

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) currently stands at 100.06, losing 0.13% on the day, though still posting a minimal weekly gain of 0.12% driven by expectations of further policy moves from the Fed.
• This environment benefits commodity currencies and emerging markets, while the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the ongoing monetary policy divergence between central banks.
• As of 07:18 CET, EURUSD is trading at 1.1477, gaining 0.12% (-0.02% on the week), while GBPUSD is at 1.3385, up 0.18% today and +0.04% on the week.
• The Australian dollar gains on hawkish comments from the RBA Governor, and the Swiss franc strengthens, driving USDCHF down for the fourth consecutive session to trade around 0.8200.

🛢️ Commodities

• Crude oil rebounds sharply from earlier lows, driven by concerns over rising fuel costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• This situation poses additional challenges for central banks regarding second-round inflationary effects driven by rising energy prices.
• Copper continues its strong upward streak toward record levels, a direct result of rapidly shrinking inventories in China and rising industrial demand.
• Gold consolidates near historical highs, supported by strong investment demand in Asia, where Chinese gold imports exceeded the symbolic 1,000-tonne mark this year.
• As of 07:18 CET, gold stands at 4,345 (+0.03% daily, -0.75% weekly), WTI crude is at 93.36 (+1.53% daily, -2.21% weekly), Brent crude is at 101.69 (+1.64% daily, -1.48% weekly), and copper is at 14,669 (+0.8% daily, +0.8% weekly).

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

• Major digital assets are experiencing a brief intraday correction, representing a natural pause after recent dynamic gains across the broader tech and financial markets.
• Investors are closely monitoring key cryptocurrencies amid shifting macroeconomic environments and global regulatory decisions.
• Despite today's mild pullbacks, the weekly outlook remains distinctly green, confirming sustained medium-term demand from institutional and retail investors. The digital asset ecosystem is also absorbing corporate news, such as Animoca Brands pausing its merger to prioritize operational agility over transaction completion.
• As of 07:18 CET, Bitcoin is trading at 85,212, down 1.44% daily (+5.43% weekly), while Ethereum stands at 2,721, down 1.61% daily (+3.54% weekly).

🌐 Geopolitics

• The Ministry of Defense reported a massive Russian strike on infrastructure and port targets across Ukraine, further escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and driving tighter international sanctions.
• The United States signed a strategic agreement with Greenland and Denmark ensuring permanent US oversight of island security, including plans to reopen a key Cold War military base.
• A sharp rise in fuel prices triggered by the Middle East conflict is hitting small businesses and consumers, forcing Western governments to deploy shield programs and plan winter financial support for vulnerable citizens.

Suggested for Observation

• Gold (GOLD) — Features an extremely high 5-year z-score (+1.61) near historical highs, making it a key asset amid inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions.
• WTI Crude (OIL.WTI) — Posting a strong daily gain (+1.51%) in response to rising fuel costs and the Middle East situation, directly fueling central bank concerns over core inflation.
• NASDAQ 100 (US100) — Index with a very high 5-year z-score (+2.21), driven by global frenzy around AI capital investments (including Alibaba's initiatives and GPU demand).
• Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) — Reacting strongly to the RBA's hawkish communication and inflation fears driven by demand and supply shocks, holding a high 5-year z-score (+1.90).
• VIX (VIX) — Although showing a daily drop, its level amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts and monetary policy shifts warrants continuous attention as a market sentiment barometer.