Today's session may see somewhat reduced liquidity. Exchanges will remain closed in Canada for Thanksgiving and in Japan for Health and Sports Day. It is also worth noting Columbus Day in the United States, which is a public holiday for federal administration, government offices, and banks.
Investors will focus heavily on the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund, which features numerous speeches by officials from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve.
On the geopolitical front, attention remains centered, predictably, on the Middle East, following further Houthi strikes on strategic infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, intensive consultations continue between the European Union and China regarding trade regulations for electric and hybrid vehicles.
🌏 Key Macroeconomic Publications
Monday
South Korea
Exports during the first 10 days of October surged rapidly (up 102.0% y/y), generating a substantial trade surplus of USD 3.8 billion. The data provided support for the won, sending USDKRW to its lowest level in over a month.
China
The People's Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its strongest level since February 2023 and conducted a reverse repo operation worth CNY 50 billion.
The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported that passenger car sales in China fell by 28.1% y/y in September to 1.63 million units, pointing to persistent pressure on consumer demand.
North Korea
North Korea launched a barrage of ballistic missiles from the Pyongyang area, traveling over 900 km before landing outside Japan's exclusive economic zone. In Seoul, an emergency meeting of the National Security Council is underway.
📆 Economic Calendar
Monday
- Canada: Public Holiday
- Japan: Public Holiday
- International Monetary Fund Meeting (Day 1)
- United Kingdom: Speech by Sarah Breeden, MPC Member
- Time: 10:30 AM
- United Kingdom: Speech by Catherine Mann, MPC Member
- Time: 1:50 PM
- United States: Speech by Beth Hammack, FOMC Member
- Time: 5:10 PM
Tuesday
- Australia: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- Time: 1:30 AM
- Germany: HICP Inflation (Final Revision)
- Time: 7:00 AM
- Preliminary reading: 3.3%
- United States: Speech by Christopher Waller, FOMC Member
- Time: 8:45 AM
🗂️ Corporate Earnings Releases
- AMTD Digital ($HKD.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
3 Markets to Watch
- OIL: Brent crude futures approached USD 105 in response to renewed Houthi attacks on the main airport in Riyadh, before reversing lower to around USD 103 as the market weighed this risk against Trump's claim of an "energy truce" between Russia and Ukraine. Despite the escalation, crude exports from the Persian Gulf continue to flow at rates near pre-war levels (around 98% according to JPMorgan), limiting the geopolitical risk premium for now.
- TNOTE: The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5.24%. Last week, it approached 5.4%, reaching its highest level since 2002.
- USD/INR: The pair is down around 1%, marking its sharpest decline in six months, after the Reserve Bank of India announced a special forex window for oil companies over the weekend along with new requirements for derivative transactions.
Morning Wrap: Oil cheaper despite attacks on Saudi Arabia, markets await CPI (12.10.2026)
Daily Summary: A Shallow Rebound Ahead of Earnings Season
Market Wrap: A 4% surge in oil prices weighs on indices (08.10.2026)
Market Wrap: Oil rises again, French fiscal concerns weigh on euro (07.10.2026)
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