Morning Wrap (01.04.2025)

8:44 am 1 April 2025

  • Sentiment in APAC markets is improving slightly, after a wave of losses that hit the world's major stock exchanges yesterday. Japan's Nikkei is currently gaining 0.35%, the Hang Seng is also adding close to 0.3%, and the KOSPI, the leader of the index, is adding over 1.9%.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said during an interview with Fox that Trump will announce his next round of tariffs on Wednesday, April 2 at 19:00 GMT. Trump spoke to the media beforehand, giving some hints about what to expect. 
  • Trump said he had set a tariff plan and it would be "very nice" to other countries. The president reiterated that "the word of reciprocity is very important" in the context of the upcoming changes.
  • The Bank of Australia decided to keep interest rates at 4.1% as expected. The RBA maintained the status quo in a statement. The key detail is that bankers confirm that monetary policy remains tight and acknowledge that risks to the inflation outlook remain bilateral.
  • Governor Bullock said that the possibility of a rate cut was not discussed today and that the RBA had not yet made a decision on its May 20 meeting. Australian CPI data is due on April 30, so given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, the RBA looks set to use the time to keep its stance as open as possible on future decisions.
  • China’s private manufacturing PMI posted its fastest pace of growth in four months in March, citing stronger demand and solid export orders, although rising US tariffs are not a good sign. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, up from 51.1 expected and 50.8 previously.
  • The Bank of Japan released its quarterly Tankan report, PMI data and unemployment report. Overall, the Tankan manufacturing data in line with expectations, along with a higher reading in the services sector, as well as lower unemployment and higher PMI data, are boosting inflation expectations, which will provide some encouragement for the future path of BoJ rate hikes.
  • Market volatility remains high. The VIX volatility index is currently gaining 1.1%, while gold resumes its bullish trend and breaks out to new highs. Futures on the major indices are slightly lower.
  • The most important macroeconomic reports of the day are the PMI data for the manufacturing sector from the world’s major economies and the JOLTS data from the US. 

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