Morning wrap (01.05.2025)

8:57 am 1 May 2025

  • Market volatility in the Asia-Pacific region is limited today. China has begun its long Labor Day holiday week, with stock markets closed from May 1 to May 5.

  • Meanwhile, other markets are seeing gains today due to improved sentiment on Wall Street at the end of yesterday’s cash session. Japan’s JP225 index is up 0.75%, and AU200.cash is trading 0.56% higher. U.S. CFD index futures are up in the range of 0.45–0.55%. The U.S. dollar is also gaining and remains one of the stronger G-10 currencies.

  • A similar situation is unfolding in Europe, where most markets are closed for Labor Day, except for London.

  • U.S. stocks found support after strong results from the tech sector. Meta and Microsoft helped erase earlier losses after the weak GDP report and pushed the session into positive territory.

  • The BoJ, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged, citing risks from rising U.S. tariffs. In its quarterly projections, it lowered growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and also revised inflation forecasts downward for fiscal years 2025–2027. The statement had a dovish tone, pushing USDJPY up 0.80% toward 144.00.

  • The BoJ warned that a broad imposition of tariffs could weaken global trade, business sentiment, and supply chains. Uncertainty around the direction of global policy remains high. Rising import prices may curb domestic demand and place a greater burden on the economy. Households may reduce spending, further weakening the economic recovery.

  • The final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for Japan in April came in at 48.7, down from 48.4 in March. New orders and export sales dropped sharply. Business confidence hit its lowest level since mid-2020. Companies point to uncertainty around global trade and weakening demand.

  • U.S. Trade Representative Greer confirmed that there are currently no official trade talks underway with China. Preliminary agreements with other countries may still take a few more weeks to finalize. Market optimism about quick deals may be premature.

  • Australia recorded a strong trade surplus in March 2025 of 6.9 billion AUD, compared to 3.0 billion AUD previously. Exports rose 7.6% m/m, driven by a 26% jump in non-monetary gold exports and a rebound in iron ore shipments.

  • According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s board is reviewing CEO succession plans due to reputational damage linked to Musk’s political actions.

  • Data from France for April show a 59.45% y/y drop in Tesla sales, compared to a 5.64% y/y decline in the overall auto market. Since the start of the year, Tesla’s sales in France have fallen by 43.98%.

  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that the U.S. and China are “neck and neck” in the race for AI chip dominance. He warned of strong competition from Huawei and highlighted China’s rapid progress.

  • According to Bloomberg, the U.S. and Ukraine have signed a long-awaited agreement on critical raw materials. The deal could strengthen cooperation on resources and defense. The source was anonymous but closely involved with the matter.

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