Morning Wrap (06.07.2026)

The geopolitical situation remains relatively calm—no new breakthroughs have been reported in U.S.-Iran talks, but 160 ships (98 oil tankers) passed through the Strait of Hormuz last week, which is still well below the pre-war average of 138 daily transits. President Trump will travel to the NATO summit in Turkey, where a meeting with Zelenskyy is planned to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. In the Red Sea, a cargo ship was attacked off the coast of Yemen, although the ceasefire with the Houthis remains relatively stable.

On the economic front, the key event of the week will be the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting (Wednesday)—the first under the new chairmanship of Kevin Warsh, who has criticized the central bank’s excessive “forward guidance.” Following a weaker payrolls report, the market is currently pricing in about a 78% chance that rates will remain unchanged at the July 29 meeting, but the likelihood of a rate move in September is rising. OPEC+ confirmed its fifth consecutive monthly increase in production limits—by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, bringing the total increase since April to nearly 800,000 bpd. Today at 4:00 p.m., the ISM Services Index for June will be released (forecast: 54.2 vs. 54.5 previously), and Fed member Waller will speak this evening.

Wall Street ended last week with strong gains—the Dow Jones approached record highs (+2% for the week), the S&P 500 rose 1.8%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.1%, despite weakness in the semiconductor sector (SMH ETF -3.2%). Futures are trading slightly lower today: S&P 500 -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.48%, while European futures (DAX, FTSE) remain flat, and the EuroStoxx 50 is down slightly by about 0.2%.

Asian markets are trading mixed amid caution ahead of the earnings season for AI and chip companies. The Nikkei fell 0.7–1.4%, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.9–1.2% under pressure from the Bank of Korea’s warning regarding leveraged ETFs on Samsung and SK Hynix (which account for 55.3% of the index’s market capitalization). Hong Kong’s Hang Seng held up better (+0.4%), while China’s CSI 300 remained virtually unchanged, as did Australia’s ASX 200.

In the foreign exchange market, the dollar remains relatively stable (DXY index around 100.9), and the yen continues to be the main story—USD/JPY is hovering around 161.5–161.9, just below its 40-year high (since 1986) of 162.84. The risk of intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance remains the main factor limiting further depreciation of the yen, although analysts (including Goldman Sachs, which raised its forecast to 165) believe that intervention alone will not permanently reverse the trend without a change in macroeconomic fundamentals. The euro is holding near $1.1430–1.1435, the pound is around $1.3351–1.3381, and the South Korean won began the first day of 24-hour spot trading at 1,532–1,534.

In the commodities market, oil is trading slightly lower following OPEC+’s decision to increase production—Brent has fallen to around $71.78–71.90 (its lowest level in four months), and WTI to $68.47–68.72. Gold is retreating after last week’s gain of over 2%, trading around $4,151–4,172 per ounce under pressure from a slightly stronger dollar, even though J.P. Morgan sees a target of $4,300 in Q3. Silver is down about 1% to $61.7–61.8, and natural gas is falling the most among all commodities, by nearly 2%.

Among companies, Samsung Electronics is drawing the most attention; on Tuesday, it is expected to report an 18-fold increase in operating profit (to approximately 86 trillion won, or $56.35 billion) thanks to the AI memory boom. SK Hynix is preparing for a $28 billion IPO in the U.S., while Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo are kicking off the U.S. earnings season this week, ahead of the full-scale start of the banking earnings season next week.

Bitcoin remains stable around $63,000–63,200 (+0.11%), showing little reaction to today's market events.

The key events in today’s session will be: the U.S. ISM Services Index (4:00 p.m.), speeches by Waller and Lagarde at the ECB conference, and further developments regarding the yen—a potential test of the 162.80 level could trigger intervention by Tokyo. On Wednesday, attention will shift to the Fed’s meeting minutes and the RBNZ’s decision (an expected rate hike to 2.50%).