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Major currency pairs are trading in narrow ranges today. The Japanese market remains closed due to a holiday.
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Weekend reports indicate that Washington is encouraging Kyiv to accept concessions to Russia as part of a modified peace proposal. Territorial and security issues remain unresolved.
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Brent/WTI slipped slightly at the start of the new week on speculation that a Russia–Ukraine deal could unlock sanctions. The declines have now been fully erased.
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Chinese semiconductor stocks fell on rumors that Trump may allow sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China.
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The market expects a 25 bp cut to 2.25% at Wednesday’s RBNZ meeting. According to economists, this may be the final cut in the cycle.
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Barclays expects a strong dollar in 2026, supported by a massive AI-capex cycle boosting productivity and growth, high global demand for U.S. technology, and reduced concerns about tariffs. The bank also expects a more stable backdrop for risk assets into 2026.
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Barclays assumes that Powell is likely to lean toward a cut at the December FOMC meeting. Currently, 6 policymakers lean toward a pause and 5 toward a cut, not counting Powell. He is expected to steer the committee toward easing in December. Governors rarely oppose the Chair, giving him decisive influence.
Economic calendar: delayed US PPI and retail sales report this week 📃
Daily summary: massive selloff in crypto; Fed cut in December 💵
Three market to watch next week (21.11.2025)
BREAKING: UoM report suggests a decline in inflation expectations 📌
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