- Australia's trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.7% YoY in Q3, above expectations of 3.6%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said inflation remains "far too high" and that domestic demand continues to exceed the economy's supply capacity. Markets raised the probability of another 25 bp rate hike at the November 3 meeting to around 75%.
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Bullock said the RBA cannot completely disregard inflation caused by supply shocks. Higher energy costs could feed through into broader price categories and inflation expectations.
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The RBNZ unexpectedly held the OCR at 2.75% in a closely contested 4–3 vote, despite markets pricing in around a 90% probability of a rate hike. Unlike in Australia, the majority of policymakers pointed to lower-than-expected inflation, weak wage growth, and fragile domestic demand. The surprise decision triggered a sharp depreciation of the New Zealand dollar.
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Governor Breman cautioned against interpreting the decision as overly dovish, noting that further rate hikes remain likely and that monetary policy may ultimately need to move into clearly restrictive territory. The central bank is also concerned about persistent NZD weakness, which could increase imported inflation. The December meeting therefore remains important despite today's pause.
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Brent crude is up 1.36% to $111.20 per barrel after the Houthis reported a missile attack on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery. Saudi authorities have yet to confirm any damage. An actual refinery shutdown would be particularly significant for the already tight market for refined petroleum products.
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According to reports, the U.S. has warned its Gulf allies to prepare for the possibility of a short but intense military campaign against Iran following the November 3 midterm elections. Trump is reportedly leaning toward a major strike, although no final decision has been made.
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UBS expects Brent crude to trade near $110 per barrel by year-end and has also raised its forecasts for 2027. The bank argues that oil market pressures are shifting away from production shortages alone toward logistical constraints, attacks on shipping, and elevated freight costs.
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Markets expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged today, shifting attention to Chair Warsh's guidance regarding December. U.S. Treasury yields remain close to 5%, meaning that even a moderately hawkish message could put pressure on equities and support the U.S. dollar.
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