-
The indices on the U.S. stock market fully recovered yesterday from the losses triggered by the Fed’s press conference following its interest-rate decision. The driver of such a strong rebound was the very robust quarterly results of technology companies, above all Microsoft and Meta. The US100 and US500 indices ended the day at record highs.
-
BoJ left the short-term interest rate at 0.5 % and unanimously voted to maintain its current policy, while raising its core CPI inflation forecasts for fiscal years 2025–2027.
-
The Bank expects a gradual rise in inflation, supported by higher wages and moderate consumption. The BoJ remains cautious and signals that further hikes are possible only if economic and price data justify them.
-
The BoJ acknowledged that inflation will likely slow in the near term but expects it to accelerate further out. It pointed to rising inflation expectations but warned that trade tensions could undermine wage growth. Fiscal support in the U.S. and Europe may improve global demand. The base scenario assumes no major supply disruptions.
-
USDJPY fell below 148.65 after the BoJ decision and the inflation-forecast revision, but the pair later rebounded. Markets read the BoJ’s stance as a sign of slow normalisation rather than immediate tightening.
-
Trump unveiled a comprehensive trade deal with South Korea, including USD 350 bn in U.S. investment and USD 100 bn in LNG purchases. South-Korean exports to the U.S. will face a 15 % tariff, while U.S. exports will be tariff-free.
-
Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed new trade deals with Thailand and Cambodia. Details remain limited.
-
Japan’s June industrial production rose 1.7 % m/m (forecast -0.6 %), and retail sales grew 2.0 % y/y, beating expectations. The rebound in production and consumption supports the BoJ’s cautious optimism.
-
China’s July manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, marking the fourth straight monthly decline. The services PMI came in at 50.1 – the lowest since November. Exports are losing momentum and domestic demand remains weak. Markets took the data as evidence of continued economic softness.
-
Australia’s June retail sales rose 1.2 % m/m (forecast +0.4 %), bolstering the narrative of economic recovery. Deputy Governor Hauser expressed optimism about consumer resilience and labour-market strength. Markets still expect an RBA rate cut in August.
-
Trump threatened India with 25 % tariffs and criticised its trade ties with Russia. He said a deal with Canada would be “very difficult” in light of its plans to recognise Palestine.
-
Goldman Sachs estimated that the new effective U.S. tariff rate on imports from Brazil is 30.8 %.
-
Visa reported Q3 revenue of USD 10.2 bn (forecast USD 9.87 bn) and EPS of USD 2.98 (forecast USD 2.85). Cross-border transaction volume rose 12 %, and total payment volume gained 8 % y/y. Net profit reached USD 5.3 bn, driven by strong consumption.
-
OpenAI’s annual revenue climbed to USD 12 bn, doubling in seven months. ChatGPT now has 700 mn weekly active users.
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
