📈 Equities: US & Asia
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Wall Street After Profit-Taking: US index futures are trading virtually unchanged following yesterday's profit-taking, with slight pressure still lingering on tech stocks (US2000: +0.03%, US500: +0.05%, US30: +0.1%, US100: -0.1%).
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Asian Correction: Asian stock markets snapped a 4-day winning streak and traded mostly lower on Thursday, dragged down by Wall Street's tech sell-off and ongoing doubts surrounding the profitability of AI investments. South Korea's Kospi lost over 5% at its intraday low, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 fell by nearly 2%. Declines were also recorded in Hong Kong, Taipei, and Wellington, while Shanghai, Sydney, and Singapore logged modest gains.
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Semiconductor Sell-Off: Disappointing quarterly results from US chipmakers (SanDisk, Western Digital) hit Asian memory and equipment giants: Kioxia (-10%+), SK Hynix (-9.7%), Tokyo Electron (-7%), Samsung (-6.1%), and SoftBank (-6%).
🏛️ Macroeconomics & Central Banks
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Trump-Warsh Relationship Under Scrutiny: According to WSJ reports, President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintain frequent, direct phone contact. Trump views Warsh as a valued external economic adviser (reminiscent of the Clinton-Greenspan dynamic), raising questions regarding central bank independence.
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Inflation Warning (Mary Daly): San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized that the central bank must be prepared to act if inflation worsens. She outlined two potential scenarios: the current price spike proves temporary (rates remain on hold), or it accelerates, forcing an aggressive policy tightening.
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Trade Balance in Australia: The seasonally adjusted goods trade balance increased by $4,296 million in June. The expansion was driven by a sharp rise in exports (+9.6%, primarily non-monetary gold) alongside a slight decline in imports (-0.2%, mostly fuel).
💱 Foreign Exchange (FX)
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Defensive Stabilization: Following previous volatility spikes, the FX market has noticeably slowed down. The US Dollar Index is up a marginal 0.1%, with volatility across major G10 pairs staying within +/-0.1%. EURUSD remains flat around the 1.1550 level.
🛢️ Commodities & Geopolitics
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Strait of Hormuz Situation: Iran and Oman have agreed on a joint transit route, but Tehran stresses that reopening the strait requires the US to lift its naval blockade. Despite optimistic statements from Donald Trump, Iran denies direct negotiations with the US, seeking independent traffic control and toll collection.
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Crude Oil: Volatility in the energy market is subsiding. Brent futures are down roughly 0.25% to around $79 per barrel.
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Precious Metals: Gold advances for the 4th consecutive session (+0.4% to $4,260/oz). Silver trades flat, while platinum continues its strong bullish run (+2%), driven by supply constraints.
Economic Calendar: Could Smaller Job Reports Pressure Fed to Hike?
Daily Summary: Dow Jones hits record highs, while gold and silver rally on hopes for a US–Iran deal
Hormuz Deal Moves Closer
US Open: AMD and SpaceX failed to impress, but the broader market remains resilient
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