- US equity futures moved higher after Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, which the market interpreted as a signal of temporarily easing geopolitical tensions. After the US session, earnings from Tesla (TSLA.US) and IBM (IBM.US) are due, while today’s macro calendar remains relatively light.
- In practice, investors responded with a modest return of risk appetite. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.3%, as markets began to price in a scenario where reduced tensions could ease pressure on oil prices and support economic growth prospects.
- At the same time, the US dollar weakened, which typically reflects a partial move away from safe-haven assets as markets shift from a defensive stance toward a more cautious risk-on environment.
- It is worth noting, however, that this rebound followed a weaker session. US benchmark indices declined for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continued to weigh on investor sentiment.
- In the commodities market, conditions remained tense. Brent crude hovered around $98 per barrel, indicating that despite the short-term improvement in sentiment, markets are still pricing in a significant geopolitical risk premium related to the Middle East.
- Sentiment in Asia remained subdued. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7% on Tuesday, following earlier losses on Wall Street, as investors assessed how long the Middle East conflict might last and its potential impact on the global economy.
- In Europe, the outlook for the session was also cautious. Despite gains in US markets, European equities were expected to open slightly lower, suggesting that global markets are not yet treating the situation as fully resolved.
- Trump’s announcement itself was both reassuring and ambiguous. On one hand, he confirmed an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran; on the other, he blamed the lack of progress in talks on what he described as a “seriously fractured” leadership structure in Tehran.
- From a market perspective, it is important that the US plans to halt further military strikes while maintaining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping remains heavily disrupted. For investors, this means that while military risk has temporarily eased, supply risk in the oil market has by no means disappeared.
US100 (D1)
Technical indicators still point to a bullish bias, but the market has already entered overbought territory, so caution is warranted in the short term. Holding above the 9-day moving average suggests that the short-term trend remains positive. At the same time, a downside reversal signal on the daily chart slightly weakens the overall outlook. Despite this, the broader setup still favors further gains. The next upside target can be estimated around the 27,100 level. However, it is worth noting that the 9-day RSI has moved above 70, which typically signals overbought conditions and increases the risk of a correction. The nearest resistance zones are located around 26,930 and 27,100, while initial support is seen near 26,600, followed by a lower level around 26,400.
Source: xStation5
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