Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) surged 3.1%, driven by a massive capital rotation out of value and defensive sectors into technology, semiconductors, and AI.
Technical Analysis: US100 (Nasdaq 100 Futures)
Nasdaq 100 futures are staging a strong rebound off recent lows, with the daily RSI (14) lifting to 41.8. However, price action remains constrained below the key EMA100 (D1) near 28,276, which acts as immediate overhead resistance alongside the 28,400 level. Reclaiming this zone is essential to confirm a sustainable trend reversal. Notably, tech-heavy gains continue to outpace classical value stocks represented by DJIA futures (US30; pale blue), underscoring strong market divergence favoring tech outperformance.
Source: xStation5
What's behind the rebound?
-
Sector Surge: The tech sector as a whole gained +4.8% within the Nasdaq.
-
Deep Rotation: However, a clear rotation took place even within mega-caps and traditional value names—capital flowed out of Apple, Google, Walmart, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Chevron and Honeywell to fund the tech buy.
-
SaaS Momentum: Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) names gained strong traction, buoyed by standout cloud performance across major hyperscalers.
Source: XTB Research
Why: Earnings Revive the AI Trade
After weeks of sluggish momentum in the tech sector, particularly among semiconductor stocks (the PHXL Semiconductor Index is still down 21% from the previous month), a pair of blockbuster earnings reports helped revive the Nasdaq. Strong results from Microsoft, a key player in AI cloud computing, and Lam Research, a major supplier to ASML, provided a boost after the index fell below its 100-day exponential moving average for the first time since April.
-
Microsoft (MSFT): Shares surged nearly 17% following Q4 results that beat expectations on both top line ($90.01B, +18% YoY) and EPS ($4.81). Growth was led by Azure cloud revenue accelerating 43% YoY (surpassing $100B annualized), while Microsoft 365 Copilot reached 30 million paid users. Investor sentiment was further boosted as full-year capex guidance was lowered to ~$175B from $190B due to accounting adjustments.
-
Lam Research (LRCX): Shares rallied nearly 20% after the semiconductor equipment maker delivered beat-and-raise Q4 results, driven by a 30% YoY revenue surge to $6.72B and adj. EPS of $1.82. A 43% jump in customer support revenue ($2.47B) expanded margins, while Q1 adj. EPS guidance of $2.00–$2.30 easily cleared Wall Street estimates ($1.84).
Macro backup: dovish FOMC aftermath
Markets also benefited from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s ambiguous stance during yesterday’s post-rate decision press conference. Despite his firm language on inflation and emphasis on the importance of the 2% target, Warsh did not dissent from the decision, even though three FOMC members voted for a rate hike. This cast some doubt on the credibility of his hawkish stance.
The shift clearly eased markets’ expectations of aggressive rate hikes for the remainder of 2026, helping clear the way for a rebound in equities, which had recently come under pressure from rising Treasury yields.
The market-implied path for US interest rates shifted lower across the entire forecast horizon following Kevin Warsh’s press conference, with the first rate hike now fully priced in only for December 2026. Source: XTB Research, based on Bloomberg Finance LP data.
US OPEN: Nasdaq rebounds! Microsoft and Lam Research earnings revive AI trade!
Amazon Preview: AWS vs. $200 Billion in CapEx
BREAKING: US GDP below estimates! EURUSD struggles for direction!
BREAKING: BoE Keeps Rates Unchanged
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
