Warm U.S. temperatures echo last year’s mild autumn and winter, reducing gas demand for heating
Natural gas continues its strong declines (-6.9% today, with futures falling approximately 8% with November delivery at $2.360/mmBtu and December at $2.86/mmBtu). Today it has moved below 78.6 Fibonacci retracement level. It is worth noting that before the last 3 rollovers there was downward pressure on the price. The current rollover from the November contract to the December contract will be the penultimate upward rollover. From the January contract to the summer contracts we will see backwardation, with March 2025 trading at a record low premium over April 2025 of just 5 cents per mmBtu.
10-day outlook shows continued high temperatures. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appFor the past few weeks, we have seen a smaller increase in stocks than seasonality would suggest, though this trend is shifting as evidenced by two consecutive weeks of above-normal injections - the first time since October 2023. There is a chance that inventory gains could approach the 100 bcf level in the next 2-3 weeks, supported by rising output levels which have increased by 1.6 bcfd over the past four days to 102.8 bcfd. In view of this, it is highly likely that with the actual start of the heating season, larger price declines will also begin, particularly given that speculators have turned their positions to net short for the first time since April.
Inventories have grown more than expected recently with 82 billion cubic feet last week, slightly below the expected 76 billion and higher than the previous 55 billion cubic feet. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP.
Current storage levels are approximately 5% above seasonal norms, with demand forecast to rise from 99.1 bcfd this week to 101.5 bcfd next week, though this forecast is lower than previous estimates.
After NATGAS has moved below 78.6 Fibonacci retracement level it touched 15-day EMA. We can suspect that it will create support. If broken, the 30-day EMA at 2.711 might be retested. Source: xStation
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