Netflix beats estimates in 1Q24 and increases its forecasts 📊

12:39 am 19 April 2024

Netflix maintains a strong streak and shows strong results for the 1st quarter of 2024. The company managed to surpass both its forecasts and market expectations. The key to success in the first three months of the year lies primarily in the strong growth in the number of new subscribers, which increased by 9.33 million to 269.6 million.

The company recorded revenues of $9.37 billion in the first quarter. This represents a nearly 15% YoY increase and a higher result of +1.13% compared to market expectations. Revenues increased not only due to the growing customer base but also due to the growth in average revenue per membership (ARM). In 1Q24, this value increased by 1% YoY to $11.82. This means a result higher than the expected $11.78. Adjusted for changes in the currency market, ARM  would grow +4%, and the difference between these two values ​​results from the weakening of the Argentine peso against the dollar.

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The operating profit also looks great, increasing to $2.63 billion (+51% YoY and +8.34% compared to market expectations). This allowed the company to achieve a 28% operating margin (+7 pp YoY). Such an impressive growth resulted from higher-than-expected subscriber growth and the appropriate timing of production spending.

In geographical terms, Netflix recorded revenue growth in the Americas (+7% YoY). In the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa), revenues remained flat YoY. The most interesting situation ican be observed in South America, where revenues decreased by -4% YoY, but after adjusting for changes in exchange rates, they increased by 16% YoY.

In February and March, streaming began to rebound, reaching 38.5% of the entire US television market, of which Netflix is ​​responsible for 8.1%. According to the management's assessment, the company's still low market share in the television market gives Netflix a large room for further growth, especially thanks to the development in the field of  entertainment and cultural events such as sports streaming (including events like Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson fight or WWE).

The company reported EPS $5.28 (+80.2% YoY), which means beating market expectations by 16.04% .

Netflix's financial results for 1Q24. The values (except for earnings per share and average revenue per membership) are given in billions of dollars. Source: Company report, XTB Research.

Netflix has also raised its revenue growth forecast for 2024. The company expects growth of 13-15%. The projected operating margin has also been increased to 25% (from 24% previously).

The company announced that starting from 1Q25, it will no longer publish data on changes in the number of subscribers. The management explained that they consider their financial data to be more important indicators of the company's condition.

Despite strong results, exceeding expectations, and raised forecasts for future periods, Netflix's stock prices are falling in the after-market hours, with a decline of approximately -3.7%, similar to other companies reporting results during the ongoing earnings season.

Source: xStation

The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.

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