No surprises in text of Powell's testimony

3:39 pm 21 June 2023

Text of Powell's semiannual congressional testimony was released today at 1:30 pm BST, an hour and a half before his appearance before the US House Financial Services Committee. Market saw little reaction to the release as the text included no surprises. Key takeaways:

  • Progress of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go
  • Officials see somewhat higher rates by the end of the year
  • It was prudent to keep rates steady at last week's meeting to assess incoming data
  • Long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored
  • Fed will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis
  • Job market is very tight but getting into a better balance

Keep in mind that this is a text for both days of congressional testimonies and Powell will deliver the same remarks today in the US House and tomorrow in the US Senate. However, questions from lawmakers are likely to differ and could be a source of increased volatility. Nevertheless, text of the testimony hints that Powell will attempt not to deviate much from the message sent at the post-meeting press conference last week.

As the text offered no surprises, there was barely any reaction on the market. USD ticked lower in a knee-jerk move but recovered from the drop later on. EURUSD is now trading slightly below pre-release levels. Equities moved slightly lower.

EURUSD jumped in a knee-jerk move following release of the text of Powell's testimony but has pared those gains later on and now trades lower compared to pre-release levels. Source: xStation5

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