➡️No tangible progress from the Alaska summit

Putin and Trump did not present any specific agreements, but de-escalation was avoided

Diplomatic failure with the veneer of success

The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska ended in a failure, most likely as expected by most observers. Despite 2.5 hours of talks and assurances of a "constructive atmosphere," the leaders made no breakthrough on the war in Ukraine. It is noteworthy that the meeting concluded well ahead of schedule, as it had previously been indicated that it might last as long as 6-7 hours.

Trump admitted directly: "We have not reached a result, but we have a very good chance of getting to a result." The U.S. President added that there were "many points" on which he agreed with Putin, but there remained "a couple of big issues" that were "not quite" resolved. Crucially, there was no announcement of a ceasefire, and Trump admitted that no agreement had been reached.

Problematic signals from the U.S. side

An analysis of the meeting raises serious concerns about the effectiveness of U.S. diplomacy. Putin was welcomed by Trump with full honours—on a red carpet, with applause, and an invitation to the presidential limousine. During the press conference, Putin spoke first and for over eight minutes, while Trump unexpectedly concluded the conference after a statement of just 3.5 minutes.

Expert Kristine Berzina of the German Marshall Fund assessed that "at the press conference, Putin gave nothing and received everything." She added that Trump thought that by being "exceptionally nice to Putin," he would manage to get more, but "Putin didn't give him that."

Possible Russian demands difficult to accept

Based on previous signals from the Kremlin, it is possible to predict the conditions Putin might set in future negotiations, which would be problematic for Europe and Ukraine:

Demands on NATO and the West

Putin will likely demand written guarantees from Western leaders to halt NATO's eastward expansion. This would effectively rule out future accession to the alliance by Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other post-Soviet republics.

Conditions for Ukraine

Russian demands may include:

• Ukraine adopting a neutral status without the presence of foreign troops or weapons of mass destruction.

• Suspension of all contacts with NATO and a reduction in the size of the Ukrainian army.

• Recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea and the occupied regions.

• Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

• Demilitarisation and "denazification" of Ukraine.

Economic demands

Moscow will likely demand:

• The lifting of all sanctions imposed on Russia.

• The return of frozen Russian assets.

• The withdrawal of all lawsuits against Russia.

Time pressure and sanctions threats

Trump announced that if no agreement is reached with Russia within 50 days (later shortened), he will impose severe 100% tariffs on Moscow and its trading partners. The U.S. President also admitted that thanks to the meeting with Putin, he does not have to think about imposing new sanctions on Russia for 2-3 weeks. He now indicated that he does not intend to impose sanctions or tariffs on Russia but may do so within the specified 2-3 weeks. Before the meeting, it was suggested that sanctions might target key Russian oil companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil.

Strategic assessment of the situation

The Wall Street Journal assessed that the Alaska summit was an opportunity for Putin to get a photo op and end his isolation from the West, but the Russian leader gave nothing in return. Russia's Ambassador to Washington admitted that the meeting "did not produce any serious breakthroughs."

The meeting in Alaska confirms that Putin likely deceived Trump, gaining a prestigious reception on American soil without any concrete concessions. The Russian leader achieved his goal—breaking international isolation and gaining recognition as an equal negotiating partner.

The lack of concrete agreements, combined with announcements of further meetings ("next time in Moscow," as Putin said in English), suggests that Russia will try to draw out negotiations while continuing military actions in Ukraine.

The peace conditions presented by the Kremlin are deliberately maximalist and would, in practice, mean the capitulation of Ukraine and a significant limitation of the sovereignty of European NATO allies. Europe and Ukraine will have to prepare for difficult negotiations in which Putin will try to use Trump's apparent willingness to make concessions to achieve his strategic goals. Trump himself indicates he is advising Europe to accept the conditions agreed upon at today's meeting, although, of course, there is a lack of specifics.

How might the market react?

Oil prices fell sharply on Friday before the meeting, while gold remained stable. It is difficult to assess the market reaction on Monday, as no specifics were communicated. On one hand, the lack of agreements should cause oil and gold prices to rebound, but on the other, the lack of immediate sanctions threats and the announcement of further talks mean that current trends or at least price levels may be maintained. In the cryptocurrency market, which is the only one open on the weekend, we did not observe a clear reaction. On the other hand, gold-related cryptocurrencies reacted with minimal increases after the meeting, but these were not significant movements.