A series of exchanges of fire between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf is pushing market expectations away from the prospect of an open Strait of Hormuz and a normalization of crude oil, gasoline, and gas supplies from the region.
OIL (D1) chart
The 100 and 200 EMAs indicate that bullish momentum is being maintained, although the RSI [14] is starting to move into levels interpreted as “overbought.” Fibonacci levels drawn based on the most recent upswing point to the latest highs as a likely upper boundary for a very broad consolidation channel. Source: xStation5
The situation is further worsened by news from Yemen, where the Houthi rebels, closely linked to Iran, have captured the port city of Mocha. Many observers and analysts suspect that the group’s increased control over the Red Sea coastline could once again threaten shipping in that region as well.
This matters because cargo traffic through the Red Sea fell sharply during a series of attacks by the group on vessels in 2023. Traffic increased again, however, after the outbreak of the war in Iran, which forced some oil shipments to be rerouted via the Red Sea. A threat to another sea route could constrain supply, which so far has helped stabilize prices.
LIVE: ECB Conference
Time for an ECB rate hike
🏯Chart of the day – USDJPY under the influence of Bessent and the BoJ (10.09.2026)
📊Morning Wrap: Hawkish Bank of Japan and Trump's Promises Electrify Markets Ahead of PPI Data
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.