- Oil declines: Brent 94.30 USD, WTI 90.80 USD – fading risk premium
- Markets are pricing progress ahead of the next round of US–Iran talks (Thursday)
- Trump signals a quick resolution; no need to extend the truce
- Vance points to a “grand bargain” and negotiation progress
- Over 100 tankers heading to the US indicate supply reorganization
- The Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk for global energy flows
- Oil declines: Brent 94.30 USD, WTI 90.80 USD – fading risk premium
- Markets are pricing progress ahead of the next round of US–Iran talks (Thursday)
- Trump signals a quick resolution; no need to extend the truce
- Vance points to a “grand bargain” and negotiation progress
- Over 100 tankers heading to the US indicate supply reorganization
- The Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk for global energy flows
The oil market is pricing in an increasing probability of a truce between the US and Iran. The geopolitical risk premium is gradually fading. Brent has fallen to 94.30 USD, and WTI to 90.80 USD, approaching the lowest levels in several weeks. This move reflects growing market conviction that a diplomatic solution is possible.
Markets have clearly shifted into an “agreement optimism” mode ahead of another round of US–Iran talks scheduled for later this week. President Trump is reinforcing this narrative, stating that the conflict is “very close to over” and suggesting that extending the ceasefire may not be necessary. Vice President Vance highlighted “significant progress” and outlined a potential “grand bargain,” involving Iran’s economic reintegration in exchange for nuclear concessions. This marks a clear contrast to the breakdown in talks over the previous weekend.
Market behavior over the past two days confirms this optimism. Equities have rebounded strongly, with US indices once again approaching all-time highs, while demand for safe-haven assets has weakened. At the same time, the energy market is reacting most directly — oil prices have declined significantly from recent highs, with WTI down more than 22% from its peak. Despite this, the situation remains fragile: flows through the Strait of Hormuz are still significantly constrained, and any disruption or breakdown in negotiations could quickly reverse the current trend. The fact that more than 100 empty tankers are heading toward the US suggests a reorganization of supply rather than a full normalization of the market.
Despite improving sentiment, markets remain caught between optimism and structural uncertainty. A potential agreement could gradually reduce the geopolitical risk premium, but key issues — particularly regarding nuclear commitments and long-term regional influence — remain unresolved. For now, oil remains the most sensitive barometer of sentiment: it declines on positive headlines but remains vulnerable to sharp rebounds in case of negative developments.
Daily Summary: U.S. stock indices are climbing following the PPI data
US OPEN: Wall Street Rallies on Soft PPI Data
BREAKING: US PPI comes in weaker than expected. EURUSD gains ground
JP Morgan earnings: Good, but it could have been better
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
