- Some tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is resuming, which should ease short-term supply constraints and allow Europe and Asia to partially rebuild inventories. Trump indicated that the US had already agreed to parts of Iran’s 10-point peace proposal during earlier negotiations, before the US and Israel strikes on Tehran. According to the US president, the military objectives of the operation have been achieved, and the proposed framework could serve as a starting point for a broader agreement.
- However, major repair work on oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf is likely to remain on hold until a full peace deal is reached—not just a temporary ceasefire. According to Rystad Energy, a complete reconstruction of the region’s infrastructure could take years and cost over $25 billion.
- If a comprehensive agreement is ultimately secured, oil prices could come under pressure toward pre-conflict levels, around $71 per barrel. For now, however, this scenario remains uncertain. In the coming weeks, the market is likely to remain in a state of suspension—caught between the risk of renewed conflict, which could trigger another price spike, and the possibility of a deeper decline.
Even under peaceful conditions, repairing damage to refining infrastructure will likely take several months, with full recovery extending much longer. Markets will now focus on signals from US and Iranian delegations, particularly on key red lines such as uranium enrichment—Tehran insists on continuing it for civilian purposes—and control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Potential fees of around $2 million per tanker could generate up to $40 billion annually for Iran, which—combined with sanctions relief—would significantly strengthen its position in the region. This is a scenario Washington and its allies may be unwilling to accept. Around 20,000 vessels pass through the Strait each year.
OIL (H1)
Source: xStation5
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