Oil is gaining around 2% today, with OIL.WTI trading at 76.25 USD per barrel and Brent at 83.50 USD. Precious metals are also rebounding after yesterday’s sell-off. Gold is up 1.20% to 5,120 USD per ounce, and silver is gaining 3.20% to 83.30 USD per ounce.
Global capital attention remains focused on developments in the Middle East. According to estimates from the IDF, the UAE Ministry of Defense, and open-source data, Iran launched around 350 ballistic missiles on the first day of the campaign, targeting Gulf states including the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, as well as Israel and other countries in the region. However, the intensity of the attacks clearly declined in the following days — to around 175 missiles on the second day, 120 on the third day, and 50 on the fourth day. The decline followed coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian missile infrastructure, including IRGC headquarters, launchers, and weapons depots.
The significant reduction in launches suggests that Iran’s offensive capabilities may be weakening under sustained military pressure. This increases the likelihood that the conflict could become increasingly one-sided if launch infrastructure continues to be neutralized. At the same time, uncertainty remains high, and attempts to define trends after the fourth day of the conflict carry considerable risk. Iran still possesses other military tools, including a potentially large drone arsenal, which is more difficult to detect and intercept. Estimates prior to the outbreak of the conflict suggested that Iran could have tens of thousands of drones, leaving open the possibility of escalation through alternative methods if missile capabilities are further constrained.
Energy markets remain particularly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies pass. Maritime traffic in this key artery has nearly frozen following Iranian threats against tankers, leaving around 200 oil vessels stranded in the Gulf and driving strong price increases in recent days. US President Donald Trump attempted to calm markets late yesterday, announcing that the United States would provide maritime trade risk insurance and, if necessary, naval escorts for ships. The statement helped limit losses on US stock exchanges and temporarily eased the surge in oil prices. The situation remains dynamic, and volatility in the oil and precious metals markets is exceptionally high.
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