The most important factor driving the decline in the oil and gas market is a partial improvement in expectations regarding the transport of commodities from the Persian Gulf region.
Saudi Arabia increased oil exports in September to more than 4 million barrels per day versus around 2.4 million in August, and the market is also counting on a partial restoration of capacity on the East-West pipeline. CENTCOM leadership statements remain similarly optimistic, indicating that transfers have risen to the highest levels in six months.
There have also been hopes for diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. As a result, investors are reducing the risk premium linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
Even so, it should be remembered that production and shipping are still under constant pressure and the threat of shelling, and data, including on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, remain inconsistent and limited.
- Oil is down about 3% today, and contracts are falling toward $100.
- European gas is also clearly cheaper, and the TTF benchmark has again fallen below EUR 80/MWh.
Investors are reducing the risk premium linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
OIL price chart (D1)
The oil price on the chart has already slipped by about 9% from the most recent peak, but the RSI [14] indicator is still above 50, and the first clear technical resistance can only be seen at the levels of the previous local peak around $94. Source: xStation5
ARM Gains After CEO Comments, SoftBank Increases Financing
SEC eases regulations: Does Bitcoin and Strategy benefit the most?
US OPEN: Optimism in tech is back, NASDQ100 at its highest level in 3 months
Chart of the Day: European Gas (NATGAS.EU) below 80 EUR, but Goldman Sachs warns of 105 EUR/MWh.
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.