Pound reverses initial declines after Bailey's comments

2:43 pm 9 May 2024

Pound reverses initial declines after the governor Bailey said, that that the bank is not yet at the point to cut the base rate

Other comments: 

  • Inflationary shocks around the world are fading
  • We are not yet at a point where we could decide to cut
  • Wages are higher than expected, inflation in services remains excessively high. At the same time, these data should not prevail
  • A rate cut in June is possible, but not planned at this point
  • More data will make it possible to assess what's next for inflation
  • We have 2 more inflation readings before the June decision

Like the statement, Bailey opens the door for a possible interest rate cut. On the other hand, it does not give a sure signal as to June. The market now gives 55% for a cut in June, which is a slight increase compared to the combined probability earlier for today's and June's decision. GBPUSD is back to where it was before the decision. 

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