The US100 is regaining some ground today following its recent ‘slump’ and is up 1.02 per cent, continuing a rebound driven by semiconductor companies. The SOX index is rising for the third consecutive session (+3.2 per cent) after several difficult weeks. The catalyst remains the artificial intelligence sector: after Anthropic filed for a potentially record-breaking IPO on the Nasdaq, a consortium of banks and Blackstone secured US$63 billion in financing for the acquisition of Broadcom’s technology by Anthropic — Broadcom itself is up nearly 4%, followed by AMD (+5.4%), Micron and Western Digital (+7.5%). Tesla is climbing by nearly 4% to its highest level in over three months.
The companies showing the greatest volatility during today’s trading session. Source: XTB
Sentiment is also being buoyed by a second consecutive session of falling oil prices — Brent has slipped below US$114 following indications regarding the terms for ending the US–Iran conflict. In the background, the market is awaiting the Fed’s decision (Wednesday, with rates expected to remain unchanged) and the results of the hyperscalers/MAG7 companies — — Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon — which are expected to confirm that multi-billion investments in AI are indeed translating into growth. Meta remains a sore point, falling by around 0.8 per cent after increasing its largest-ever share issue to $97.5 billion to fund AI expansion, fuelling questions about the sustainability of the debt-fuelled boom.
Technical analysis (US100, daily chart)
The bulls have recaptured the key 100-period EMA (29,513), which is once again acting as support — prices are closing above it, reversing the negative signal from the previous week when the price fell below this moving average. The rebound occurred precisely within the 29,000–29,500 point demand zone, which coincides with a dense volume profile, confirming its significance as the foundation of the recent consolidation.
The RSI (14) has rebounded to 46.65, moving out of the oversold zone towards the neutral midpoint — this leaves room for the upward movement to continue before overbought conditions set in. As long as the price remains above the 100-period EMA, the advantage has shifted back to the buyers.
The nearest resistance is the upper boundary of the supply zone in the 29,780–29,900 point range (today’s highs), and a break above this level would, in theory, open the way towards the October highs at 31,000–31,600 points. On the other hand, a hypothetical bearish scenario comes back into play should the index fall back below the EMA100 and drop below 29,000 points — in which case the EMA200 at 28,365 points could act as a support level.
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