The opening week of February has proven even more volatile than January. Markets have been defined by a precipitous sell-off in bullion, the capitulation of Bitcoin, a sharp retreat from US technology stocks, and a marked resurgence of the US dollar, driven by a global scramble for liquidity. While the majority of blue-chip corporations have already turned in their quarterly scorecards, investor focus is now pivoting toward the "real economy." Ahead lies a backlog of critical US macroeconomic data, including the non-farm payrolls (NFP) and inflation readings. Against this backdrop of heightened volatility, three instruments warrant close scrutiny in the coming days: EURUSD, SILVER, and US500.
EURUSD
The US dollar has reclaimed its lustre as capital rotates aggressively into the safety of cash. It appears that reports of the greenback’s looming demise were decidedly premature. The trajectory from here will be dictated by a series of high-stakes macroeconomic releases that will allow markets to gauge the health of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s subsequent path. On Tuesday, we receive December retail sales data, followed on Wednesday by the pivotal January employment report (NFP)—delayed by the brief government shutdown. Friday brings the January CPI inflation print. Robust labour data coupled with stubbornly high inflation could solidify the "higher-for-longer" narrative, keeping interest rates elevated for an extended period.
SILVER
Following a brutal rout in late January, the beginning of February has offered little respite. From its all-time highs to last week’s troughs, silver has shed nearly 50 per cent of its value. Crucially, the anxieties surrounding a physical supply crunch have dissipated significantly; this is evident not only on the COMEX but also in China, where the price premium has compressed to a mere handful of dollars. Despite a tentative attempt at a rebound late last week, silver remains under heavy pressure. Should Bitcoin or Wall Street experience another wave of liquidations, the white metal remains among the most vulnerable assets to a deeper correction.
US500
US equities faced intense selling pressure in early February, despite the resolution of the legislative impasse surrounding the partial government shutdown. Sentiment has been soured by the broader collapse in crypto and precious metals, alongside a growing fatigue with technology giants. Investors are scrutinising the gargantuan capital expenditure (CAPEX) of tech firms, which has yet to translate into a commensurate acceleration in top-line growth. However, one must remember that the S&P 500 represents a broad swathe of the economy, and the "real" sector continues to demonstrate relative resilience. In this context, retail sales and employment data will be the ultimate arbiters. Corporate earnings also remain in focus, with results due from Coca-Cola and Ford (Tuesday), followed by McDonald’s and Cisco (Wednesday).
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