In the coming days, investor attention will pivot toward catalysts directly impacting the US dollar, precious metals, and broader risk sentiment. Global markets are closely monitoring crude prices as they climb amid a concentration of US naval forces near Iran. Silver remains sensitive to upcoming US economic data, while the equity complex faces a critical test as Big Tech heavyweights—including Alphabet, Amazon, and AMD—prepare to report earnings. Market participants will scrutinize macroeconomic data for cues on the future trajectory of interest rates and Federal Reserve policy. This week, particular focus should remain on SILVER, US100, and OIL.
SILVER
Silver has come under intense selling pressure following a period of euphoric gains mirrored by the gold market. Despite a persistent premium in Shanghai spot prices, the current corrective wave has been exceptionally violent, with silver valuations plunging more than 10% on Friday. The primary driver behind this retreat is a resurgent US dollar, catalyzed by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.
In practical terms, the market is beginning to discount a less accommodative monetary policy scenario, which has automatically bolstered the USD and Treasury yields—a traditional headwind for non-yielding bullion. Consequently, silver and other precious metals are likely to remain highly volatile in the short term, even as long-term structural forecasts maintain an upward bias.
Monday brings Manufacturing PMI data from the world’s leading economies. The week is also laden with central bank activity: the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, followed by Poland’s MPC (RPP) on Wednesday, with the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) concluding the cycle on Thursday.
US100
Nasdaq 100 futures lost momentum last week following a 12% rout in Microsoft shares and a broader sell-off across the software and data sectors. The performance of firms such as ServiceNow, Salesforce, FactSet, and Gartner suggests that investors are re-evaluating the risks AI poses—not merely to the capital expenditure (CAPEX) of the hyperscalers, but to the underlying business models and growth prospects of the SaaS (Software as a Service) industry.
The market has shifted into a temporary "risk-off" posture, with technology stocks once again at the epicenter of the liquidation. Looking ahead, the focus will remain squarely on US corporate earnings. While Apple’s report provided some insulation, and Meta Platforms delivered robust results, the general sentiment surrounding Big Tech remains fragile. Furthermore, Wednesday’s US ISM Manufacturing data and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report are expected to act as significant volatility triggers.
OIL
US President Donald Trump appears resolute in his ambition to decisively terminate the Iranian nuclear programme. The United States has concentrated significant military assets around Iran, supported by Israel and European NATO allies. The base-case scenario involves a surgical strike against the Iranian regime’s military infrastructure to compel Tehran into signing a new "Nuclear Deal."
However, there is a tail risk that a major escalation could spiral out of control, destabilizing the wider region. Such a scenario would likely trigger a vertical spike in oil prices and disrupt transit through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical chokepoint for the transport of "black gold." Markets are monitoring Brent crude prices with heightened vigilance, as they currently serve as a primary gauge for global inflationary risk.
Daily summary: A historic day for precious metals; SILVER loses 30%; USD gains 💡
Has the precious metals bubble burst❓ SILVER dips over 33% in a single day 🚨
Lockheed Martin earnings: The peak of global tensions and valuations
EURUSD down 0.5% amid US PPI inflation report🚨
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
