The UK's economy grew by 0.9% year-over-year in the latest reading, missing both the previous figure and market expectations of 1.1%, while quarterly GDP growth remained unchanged at 0.6%, matching forecasts. In Germany, retail sales surprised to the upside, rising 1.1% month-over-month and 1.8% year-over-year, comfortably beating expectations, while import prices increased 0.7% from the previous month, the current account surplus narrowed to €22.1 billion, and business investment grew 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, in line with forecasts.
UK GDP data — key info
- UK real GDP increased by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, confirming the earlier estimate and marking a clear acceleration from the revised 0.1% growth recorded in Q4 2025. The expansion was broad-based, with all three main sectors contributing positively. Services were the main growth engine, rising by 0.8%, which suggests that domestic activity remained resilient at the start of the year.
- Annual GDP growth for 2025 was revised slightly lower to 1.3% from 1.4%, following 1.0% growth in 2024. The revisions were relatively small and mainly reflected updated source data and seasonal adjustment changes.
- Real GDP per head rose by 0.6% in Q1 and was 0.7% higher than a year earlier, pointing to a modest improvement in economic output per person.
- The household picture was less positive. Real household disposable income per head fell by 0.8% in Q1, reversing part of the 1.2% increase seen in Q4 2025, and the household saving ratio also declined, falling by 0.7 percentage points to 8.9%, mainly because of a weaker contribution from non-pension saving.
- Overall, the data show that the UK economy started 2026 on a stronger footing, supported mainly by services. However, weaker household income and lower savings suggest that consumers may remain under pressure despite better headline GDP growth.
EURGBP chart (D1)
Source: xStation5
Source: ons.gov.uk
Source: ons.gov.uk
Economic calendar: Markets await US JOLTS, Consumer Sentiments and Nike earnings
Oil loses 30% in a quarter 🚩 Morgan Stanley cuts forecast again
Morning wrap 🔼 Stocks gain extends as AI momentum builds - Japanese Yen hits 1986 low (30.06.2026)
Daily summary: The US100 ends the session with a strong rally🚀
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
