US equity futures point to a subdued final session of the week as investors navigate geopolitical headwinds, rising inflation expectations and mounting worries over crowded AI capex positioning. Despite individual earnings bright spots like Intel, growing skepticism persists regarding whether current market valuations adequately reflect underlying macro risks.
Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) are leading losses today (-1.4%) and are currently testing major support in the form of a 100-day exponential moving average. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 futures are only modestly down compared to the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US500: +0.25%, US2000: +0.2%), while the resilience of Dow Jones futures (US30: +0.1%) underline the rotation of the capital towards more traditional companies.
Volatility in the Nasdaq 100 sectors, with tech being the major loser. Source: XTB Research
At the same time, positioning concerns are intensifying as extremely low correlation levels prompt the unwinding of volatility dispersion trades. Coupled with new US tariffs taking effect on 60 economies, market participants remain cautious about potential macro shocks amid historically thin risk premia.
Top 10 winners and losers in the Nasdaq 100. AI infrastructure companies are in the red the most. Source: xStation5
Technical Analysis: US100 (Nasdaq Futures)
Nasdaq 100 futures are testing a critical technical junction around 28,320, hovering directly on the 100-day EMA (28,389) and local horizontal support at 28,409. The index faces persistent selling pressure after breaking below its 10-day EMA (29,050) and 30-day EMA (29,394).
A sustained breakdown below this key support zone could trigger deeper losses toward lower structural levels. However, if bulls defend this long-term moving average, a bounce could target initial resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 28,966. With the RSI at 38.7, downside momentum dominates, though oversold territory approaches.
Source: xStation5
Company News:
-
Oracle (ORCL): Shares gained 2.3% in extended trading after securing a 10-year US Department of Defense contract worth $3.31 billion over the first five years, and up to $6.99 billion if options are exercised. The agreement covers on-premises software, SaaS applications, and professional services across defense organizations. However, shares are currently down 3.2%.
-
Verizon (VZ): Shares fell 1.2% premarket despite a Q2 EPS beat ($1.30 vs. $1.27 est.) and raising its full-year EPS forecast to $4.99–$5.04. Revenue missed estimates at $34.3 billion, but free cash flow jumped 24.4% to $6.4 billion, prompting an increase in full-year buybacks up to $4.5 billion. However, shares are currently up 2.7%.
-
Intel (INTC): Shares rose over 3% premarket after forecasting Q3 revenue of $15.8B–$16.8B, well above Wall Street estimates, driven by AI data center CPU demand. Q2 revenue rose 25% y/y to $16.1 billion, while adjusted EPS hit $0.42. Full-year capex is set at approximately $20 billion. However, shares are currently down 3%.
-
American Express (AXP): Shares dropped over 3% premarket as Q2 revenue ($19.64 billion) and net card fees ($2.86 billion) slightly missed expectations, despite an EPS beat of $4.53. AmEx raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 10%, citing strong momentum in its U.S. Consumer Platinum portfolio and Gen-Z/Millennial adoption. The decline exacerbated and shares are currently losing 5.8%
-
AMD (AMD): Shares rose 1% in premarket trading as Wall Street analysts raised price targets following a product event showcasing new AI products. Analysts cited strong long-term upside in AMD's GPU/CPU platforms, the scheduled launch of its Helios AI rack system, and multi-gigawatt partnership deals. However, share are currently down 2%.
Market Wrap: European Stocks Are Trying to Rebound as the Week Comes to an End💡
Alphabet shares are down 22% from their all-time high 🚩 Is Google ready to resume its bull run?
SAP earninigs: The cloud shows strong demand, margins remain under pressure
BREAKING: Eurozone recovery? Positive PMI data tempered by high oil and gas prices
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
