The US100 reverses early euphoric gains following Nvidia's results and is currently losing ground on an intraday basis. Despite strong reports and target price increases for the company, market sentiment is becoming more cautious due to warnings about overheated valuations and the potential risk of sharp declines.
Lisa Cook of the FED warned that high valuations of equities, corporate bonds, real estate and leveraged loans increase the risk of sharp market declines, although the financial system remains resilient. Ray Dalio, for his part, confirms that markets may currently be trading at relatively high levels, but stresses that it is not necessarily necessary to sell positions immediately – in his opinion, portfolio diversification is important at all times. The September labour market report showed that the US economy added 119,000 jobs, significantly more than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 per cent, the highest level since October 2021. Wages rose by only 0.2 per cent month-on-month and 3.8 per cent year-on-year, below forecasts. Initial jobless claims were 220,000, below expectations of 227,000. Employment growth came mainly from the healthcare and catering sectors, while transport and business services recorded losses. The data itself confirmed the market's belief in the ongoing cycle of rate cuts, but it seems that the money markets favour a pause in December. The chance of a 25bp cut at the 10 December meeting is currently 41.79%.
The US100 reverses its early substantial gains and falls below the 50-day EMA (blue curve on the chart). If the instrument closes below this barrier, it may mean that the current downward correction in the upward trend is broader than expected and may bring further pullbacks, even though recent company data may not confirm this theoretically. Source: xStation
BREAKING: NATGAS muted after almost in-line EIA data release 💡
Palo Alto - after Earnings
BREAKING: Philly Fed lower than expected, manufacturing weakens but outlook improves 📌
BREAKING: US100 ticks higher after NFP upbeat data release 💡
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
