The mixed open in US indices has turned into a broader sell-off, with Nasdaq 100 (US100) futures down nearly 1.5%. While there is no single clear catalyst behind the move, several factors stand out.
- First, Google (GOOGL.US) is expected to release an updated Gemini 3 Deep Think model (Alphabet is also the only “Big Tech” name not falling today). A potential “success” of the release may amplify what markets have dubbed the “Anthropic effect”—a narrative that in recent days has driven selling across parts of the tech complex, particularly software. The market appears to be shifting from “what good can AI do for companies?” to “which companies can AI realistically disrupt?”, and price action suggests a “sell first, ask questions later” phase—especially across IT and SaaS-style business models.
- Second, Cisco delivered guidance for the current fiscal year that came in below expectations, overshadowing a solid quarter and partially undermining the idea that hardware names are automatic AI winners regardless of valuation. The move has also pressured peers, with Arista Networks (ANET.US) pulling back ahead of its quarterly report due after the US close today.
- Third, the latest US labor-market data have eased recession and slowdown fears, but at the same time they may reduce any urgency for rate cuts—potentially pushing the first meaningful easing window out to at least May. That is not necessarily supportive for Wall Street, which not long ago was positioned for a relatively aggressive easing cycle this year.
Finally, Goldman Sachs data published over the weekend suggested that CTA funds (systematic, trend-following strategies) are likely to be net sellers of US equities this week in virtually all scenarios (regardless of whether the S&P 500 rises or falls). In a continued downside scenario, their selling could accelerate further, adding a mechanical flow-driven headwind.
US100 (D1)
US100 has recently found support around the 200-day EMA. A renewed move toward 24,350 could point to a deeper correction and greater selling pressure. The 24,850 area remains a key support zone, defined by two prior price reactions—one in early December 2025 and the latest in early February 2026.
Source: xStation5
Source: xStation5
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