After today's PCE data from the US, the market is behaving in an interesting way; yields and the dollar are falling, but so are risky assets like stocks, cryptocurrencies and even precious metals. It seems that the market is pricing in the temporary consumer weakness evident in the data and the decline in spending by Americans, while at the same time, the ever-so-slight chance of Fed policy easing in September. Thus, the consumption data are performing weaker, but still too strong to prompt the Fed to reverse its hawkish stance and 'risk' policy easing. As a result, we see a smaller premium on the dollar and yields, with stronger pressure among assets negatively correlated with the dollar. The Chicago PMI index published today came in well below forecasts. It came in at 35.4 versus 41.5 forecast and 37.9 previously.
Silver price chart (SILVER, H1 interval)
Silver contracts are losing almost 2.8% today and slipping below key momentum averages (SMA200, SMA100, SMA50). Major support remains around $30 per ounce, which is also the 38.2 Fibonacci abolition of the upward wave from early May. Nasdaq 100 futures (US100, orange chart) are also losing more
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Bitcoin (H4 interval)
The weaker sentiment around risky assets is also evident today in the trading of Bitcoin, which blissfully erased the rebound after the PCE data that took it almost to $69,000. The price of BTC slides around $67,000 and is trading down more than 2% today, while other projects are losing in the range of 3 - 5%. Ethereum is trading around $3700 and is behaving better today, than the largest cryptocurrency - Bitcoin.
Source: xStation5
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