Walmart will report its results this Thursday (15.08). From the perspective of investors, they will provide insight into how strong the US consumer currently remains. In all likelihood, Walmart will continue to report strong results due to its defensive nature and exposure to basic goods, which maintain strong sales momentum even in the event of negative economic turmoil.
The consensus estimate is that the company will report revenue of $168.5 billion (+4.2% y/y), the weakest growth rate since 1Q23/24. At the same time, achieving such a result would be the second highest quarterly revenue in the company's history, which casts a shadow of concern over the company's ability to meet analysts' hopes for it.
Start investing today or test a free demo
Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appThe important data that investors should primarily pay attention to will be comparable sales growth. For the U.S., the estimated comparable sales growth rate is expected to be 3.43% y/y, and the estimated 2-year comparable sales growth rate is expected to be around 9.7%. This represents a deepening deceleration in the growth rate of comparable sales, which was around 13.7% a year ago. This trend has been going on for 3 quarters now.
The growth in the number of newly opened stores will also inform the company's condition. In 2Q24/25, the estimated increase in the number of units is 1.6%, primarily outside the US (+3% y/y).
At the earnings estimate level, consensus expects EPS to rise to $0.65.
Currently, futures markets are pricing potential post-earnings volatility around 5.45%.
The option market's estimate of volatility after the results is in the range of $64.2-$72.3. The implied change of 5.45% represents a 1 p.p. smaller move than we had after the last results, when Walmart positively surprised the market. Source: xStation
2Q24/25 FORECAST RESULTS:
- Revenues of $168.46 billion (+4.23% y/y)
- Comparable U.S. Walmart store sales (excluding fuel): +3,43%
- Sam's Club comparable sales in the US (excluding fuel) +3.9%
- 2-year comparable sales growth +9.66% (-4.1 p.p.)
- Change in US e-commerce sales +16.9% (-7 p.p.)
- Adj. operating profit $7.76 billion (+6.25% y/y)
- Total number of stores: 10,645 (+1.56% y/y)
- Number of Walmart stores in the US: 4 611
- Number of Walmart stores outside the US: 5 428
- Adj. EPS: $0.65 (+5.22% y/y)
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
