The wheat market (WHEAT) posted very strong gains yesterday, despite data suggesting an improved harvest in the Kansas region. This is mainly due to growing concerns about poor harvests in Europe; particularly in Russia. Soybean (SOYBEAN) prices have also been on the rise recently, as flooding and forecasts of more rainfall in Brazil fuel fears of global crop losses. On the Chicago CBOT commodity exchange, winter wheat futures gained nearly 5% yesterday and saw a jump from around $650 to over $690 per bushel.
- Since March, the wheat market on both sides of the Atlantic (MATIF, CBOT) has remained tight, with weather conditions supporting upward momentum on the heavily oversold wheat contracts of recent quarters.
- For several weeks, large speculators have been forced to close short positions, adding to the momentum of the ongoing price increases. Today, however, sellers are gradually coming to the fore. Now the uptrend is being tested again near the medium-term psychological resistance level at $700 per bushel.
- However, crop satellite imaging company Maxar Technologies expects the drought and unfavorable conditions for wheat yields in the Black Sea region to continue. Not only bad weather but also war strains global grain supply
- The wheat market saw a sharp decline; driven by an expected improvement in weather and yields in Kansas; the largest state producer of winter wheat in the US. However, this was not enough to stop increases driven by global factors.
- Friday's crop survey in Kansas predicted better-than-average yields. Yield potential in Kansas was estimated at 46.5 bushels per acre after surveying 449 fields over three days. The reading was the highest since 2021 and above the five-year average of 42.4 bpa for 2018-2023. Despite the overbought and fulfilling wheat price correction scenario forecast by Brugler Marketing and Management, bulls quickly returned to the CBOT.
Net positioning is the highest since the last quarter of 2022. Large speculators have been covering their high short positions, which additionally fueled price rebound. Source: Bloomberg FInance LP, XTB
Weather ‘rules’ heat up wheat market again
- Russia's crop estimates have been revised downward again this year due to the weather. A revision by IKAR yielded lower-than-previous expectations for the 2024-25 wheat harvest and a 10% drop in May. The market in Russia has been hit by prolonged frost and now drought.
- The USDA estimates. that Russia - the world's largest wheat producer and exporter - faces a nearly 4% year-on-year decline in production this year. Significantly, it was the country's record harvest that caused a strong oversupply in recent quarters and helped 'disinflate' agricultural products, including wheat. Global prices have sought to be competitive with Russian markets for several months.
- Now forecasts call for wheat ending stocks to fall to their lowest level in nine years. Argus Media points to a lack of rain in Ukraine and Russia, and May frosts in both countries, as the direct cause of the price rebound. As a result, CBOT contracts have been supported by speculative fund purchases, as well as those hedging supplies.
WHEAT chart (H1)
Source: xStation5
BREAKING: Sharp drop in US oil inventories 📌
Morning wrap (29.10.2025)
Daily Summary – Wall Street Rises Ahead of “Magnificent Seven” Earnings
Chart of the day - WHEAT (28.10.2025)
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
