Although high tariffs on most foreign products in the US have become a reality, global trade turbulence is far from over. The Trump administration continues to impose new duties on specific goods and threatens tariffs for purely political reasons. This week marks the deadline for the suspension of extremely high tariffs on China, though there is a strong possibility that negotiations will be extended. While the market has been primarily driven by strong earnings from US companies, attention is now shifting to a potential high-level meeting between Trump and Putin to discuss peace in Ukraine. Consequently, this week, it is worth observing markets such as US500, GOLD, and OIL.
US500
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appStrong corporate earnings and potential tariff exemptions for companies that invest and produce in the US have driven American indices toward historic highs. Both the US500 and the US100 are less than 1% away from their all-time peaks. The earnings season is nearly over, with only a few smaller companies from the S&P 500 list scheduled to report next week. Therefore, market focus will shift to macroeconomic data. From a US perspective, the key event will be Tuesday's release of the CPI inflation data, which will shed light on the likelihood of a September Fed decision. Additionally, on Friday, we will receive data on retail sales, consumer sentiment, and industrial production.
GOLD
It turns out that the United States is not excluding gold imports from tariffs, which led to a nervous market reaction at the end of last week, pushing futures contracts toward historical highs. Gold has been a strong performer amid the threat of US tariffs, as investors have been reluctant to increase their dollar reserves. Tuesday marks the deadline for the suspension of extremely high tariffs on China. While an extension of negotiations is possible, it cannot be ruled out that China could also face secondary tariffs related to actions against Russia, which currently earns revenue primarily from the export of its energy resources. The US has already decided to impose additional 25% tariffs on India for importing Russian oil.
OIL
Oil has experienced its longest losing streak of the year, despite concerns that US secondary tariffs on Russia could tighten supply. So far, these secondary tariffs have only hit India, but further actions cannot be ruled out. Donald Trump may potentially meet with Vladimir Putin in the United Arab Emirates to discuss peace or at least a ceasefire in Ukraine. This will be the first such high-level meeting, and it is expected that Trump will either seek to announce a major success or threaten strong pressure on Russia to force a peace agreement. Regardless of the outcome, volatility in the oil market could be exceptionally high. The market will also be watching for US crude oil inventory data on Wednesday, while Tuesday will bring the monthly OPEC report.
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