One of the key events for global financial markets, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, is now behind us. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled that U.S. interest rates may be lowered, as private consumption is weakening and the labor market situation remains “fragile.” At the same time, according to Powell, the baseline scenario for U.S. inflation points to a further decline, despite a short-lived uptick driven by trade tariffs. Moreover, Canada is set to withdraw tariffs on U.S. goods, which could significantly reduce inflation risks in the United States and give the Federal Reserve more room for rate cuts.
Next week brings a series of important macroeconomic publications that may influence the Fed’s upcoming decisions. Markets will also be focused on Nvidia’s earnings — currently the largest and most important company on Wall Street. After the weekend, investors will additionally monitor any updates regarding trade issues and progress in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Against this backdrop, the key markets to watch will be US100, USDJPY, and OIL.
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Nvidia, with a market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion, is now the largest company in the world. Its weight in the Nasdaq 100 index exceeds 14%, meaning the company’s results will have a major impact on the performance of the entire index. The publication of earnings by this tech giant will also provide insight into sentiment toward other companies in the artificial intelligence sector. Expectations are for Nvidia to once again report strong, double-digit growth in both revenue and profits.
Adjusted EPS is projected at $1.00, nearly a 50% increase compared to last year, while revenue is expected to surpass $46 billion. The market, however, is hoping for a positive surprise in the range of $48–50 billion, which could push the stock price to new all-time highs. On the other hand, sales of H20 chips to China — which recently received clearance in Washington — remain uncertain. The company’s fiscal Q2 2026 results (covering May–July 2025) will be released on Wednesday after the close of trading on Wall Street.
USDJPY
After Jackson Hole, market attention will shift to upcoming macroeconomic data. Ahead of the Fed’s September decision, investors will receive several important reports. Next Thursday, August 28, the second estimate of U.S. Q2 GDP will be released. Growth is expected to reach as much as 3.1% year-on-year. On Friday, August 29, PCE inflation data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — will be published. Headline inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.6% y/y, while the core measure may accelerate to 2.9% y/y. This reading will cover July. Any upside surprises could strengthen the U.S. dollar, which, after sharp declines earlier this year, has been struggling to recover.
OIL
Talks between Ukraine and Russia remain at a stalemate. Russia has gained more time to avoid additional sanctions or secondary tariffs, while India now faces new trade burdens. On Wednesday, steep 50% tariffs on Indian products will take effect, half of which are justified by the country’s purchases of Russian oil. Should India decide to limit imports of Russian crude, this could drive further gains in the oil market, extending the rally observed at the end of last week.
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