US500
This week has been positive for Wall Street investors, largely thanks to Nvidia’s phenomenal earnings and its very optimistic revenue growth outlook. Next week, the key test for the S&P 500 index and US500 futures will be a series of U.S. economic data releases. On Tuesday, investors will receive the ISM Manufacturing Index and the JOLTS report, followed on Wednesday by the ADP employment report and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, while Thursday will bring the ISM Services Index. The main event of the week will be Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. After the unexpected decline in employment in July, the current market consensus points to an increase of around 60,000 jobs. Historically, sharp downside surprises in NFP data have triggered Wall Street sell-offs on recession fears, while moderate employment growth has supported the “soft landing” scenario and helped equity indices return toward their highs. It is also worth noting that Broadcom and HP will report earnings after the market close on Wednesday.
EURUSD
The world’s most important currency pair is entering a period packed with key economic releases. Next Tuesday, investors will focus on the preliminary eurozone CPI inflation reading as well as PMI data. These figures will shape expectations ahead of the ECB meeting on September 9–10. Markets are almost fully pricing in a rate cut, meaning the inflation reading could be particularly important for the euro’s valuation. The second half of the week will test the strength of the U.S. dollar, with a speech from Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday and, above all, Friday’s NFP report. The euro may also become increasingly sensitive to changes in energy commodity prices, including European TTF natural gas.
USDCAD
Canadian dollar-related instruments could face a double dose of volatility next week. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference with Governor Tiff Macklem. The most important moment, however, will come on Friday, when labor market reports from both the U.S. and Canada are released at the same time. Historically, simultaneous employment data from the two economies have generated some of the largest monthly volatility moves in USDCAD. If the BoC delivers a dovish message while U.S. NFP exceeds expectations, the pair could see a strong upward impulse. Beyond the data, trade disputes and oil price developments will remain important drivers.
Bitcoin and US indices decline amid Fed rate hike fears 📉
🚩 EURUSD loses 0.3%
🗽 Fed chair, Kevin Warsh speech from Jackson Hole
Market Wrap: A mild breeze of optimism ahead of Jackson Hole
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
