September dawns with a flurry of key macroeconomic data that could send ripples through global markets. While the next week will begin quietly due to the US Labour Day holiday, a swift acceleration of market activity is expected. Next week, investors will be scrutinizing crucial releases such as the US non-farm payrolls (NFP), ISM indices, and Eurozone inflation figures. As such, market participants will be keeping a close eye on EURUSD, GOLD, and the US500.
EURUSD
Following Friday's inflation data, investor attention has shifted to the upcoming US jobs report, traditionally published on the first Friday of the month. While most indicators point to an improvement in the labour market, the data is not expected to be strong enough to significantly diminish expectations for interest rate cuts. Furthermore, Eurozone inflation figures are due on Tuesday, while US ISM indices will be released throughout the next week. All these readings will be pivotal ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on September 17.
GOLD
Gold is once again nearing its historical highs, having broken above the $3,400 per ounce level in late August. Its price trajectory will be influenced not only by politics—specifically the lawsuit filed by Fed Governor Lisa Cook against Donald Trump's decision to remove her from office—but also by economic data that will shape expectations for the Fed's September meeting. Should hopes for the start of an interest rate cutting cycle grow, gold has a strong chance of reaching new record highs. However, it is worth noting that the precious metal has been consolidating since achieving its previous historical peak in April.
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US indices on Wall Street have reached historical highs, even after a slight disappointment with the earnings of Nvidia, which is now the world's most valuable company and holds an approximate 8 percent weighting in the S&P 500. The rally has been fuelled by other technology giants, including Alphabet, Broadcom, and Oracle. With earnings season drawing to a close, the broad market's focus will shift to macroeconomic data and the outlook for Fed rate cuts. While the market currently prices in an approximately 85 percent chance of a rate cut, the more critical factor will be whether the Fed signals a continuation of cuts in the following months.
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